ADA Eyes Major Upgrade: Van Rossem Hard Fork Approaches as Market Turns Divided

Cardano (ADA) is trading at $0.158 on July 17, down 1.39%, as derivatives positioning turns increasingly bearish ahead of the Van Rossem hard fork. The long-to-short ratio has fallen to 0.58, while open interest has climbed 4% to $421 million over the past 48 hours.

A clear divide is forming in the market. Traders are adding to short positions, but whales are accumulating ADA at the fastest rate since 2023. This opposing activity is building pressure, pointing to a sharp directional move once the market breaks.

Van Rossem Hard Fork Scheduled for July 18

The Van Rossem upgrade received governance approval on July 13 from Stake Pool Operators (SPOs) and Delegated Representatives (DReps). Activation is set for July 18 at 21:44:51 UTC at Slot 192,844,800.

Intersect has advised all infrastructure participants to upgrade their systems before the fork—standard guidance that signals the rollout is proceeding smoothly and on schedule.

The upgrade is expected to reduce execution costs on the network, making transactions and dApp operations more efficient. It also lays the groundwork for the Leios upgrade, which aims to significantly increase throughput by the end of 2026.

This broader roadmap context makes the fork more than a standalone event, helping explain the strong whale accumulation leading into activation.

Key Levels in Focus: $0.160 and $0.170

CoinGlass liquidation data highlights a major liquidity zone between $0.160 and $0.165, just above current price levels. A larger cluster is concentrated near $0.167, aligning with resistance around $0.1709 on the daily chart.

These levels define the near-term outlook. A move below $0.160 could trigger long liquidations and send ADA toward $0.1465 support. On the upside, a break above $0.170 may force short covering, fueling upward momentum as the fork goes live.

On the 4-hour chart, ADA has broken above a descending trendline from its early-July high near $0.195, but the breakout has yet to develop into sustained upside.

The RSI sits at 46.92, below its moving average of 50.95, indicating a neutral-to-bearish bias. With no oversold conditions, the market lacks a strong support base and appears to be waiting for a catalyst.

Outlook

Cardano’s previous major upgrade, the Vasil hard fork in September 2022, improved smart contract efficiency and network performance.

Van Rossem takes a different approach, focusing on cost reduction and preparing the network for future scaling via Leios. The governance process—now handled through Intersect with formal SPO and DRep approval—also reflects a more advanced and transparent framework than earlier upgrades.

The key question is whether this stronger foundation will translate into sustained buying after the fork, or if bearish traders will use any rally to increase short exposure.

The liquidity cluster near $0.167 remains the most important signal. A daily close above this level would confirm bullish momentum. As seen in past crypto events, the side controlling spot supply typically determines the outcome, gradually outweighing derivatives positioning.