Bitcoin CPI Reaction: Cooling Inflation May Offer BTC a Chance to Recover

Bitcoin traders are preparing for the October U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) release on Tuesday, November 10, at 8:30 a.m. ET. Economists expect core inflation to increase by 0.22% during the month, potentially signaling slower price growth. Historical figures show that Bitcoin recorded gains during the first hour after 10 of the 13 CPI announcements in which core inflation came in at 0.2% or below.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the October figures at 13:30 UTC. The announcement could influence cryptocurrency prices throughout the week while providing investors with another indication of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy outlook.

Core CPI, which removes food and energy prices from the calculation, is expected to rise 0.22%, compared with September’s 0.33% increase.

Bitcoin is currently hovering around $74,400 after falling to $73,510 on Sunday, marking its lowest level in two months. With market sentiment already under pressure, the inflation report could become an important trigger for the next major price move.

Historical data covering 24 previous CPI announcements reveals a noticeable connection between inflation readings and Bitcoin’s immediate performance. BTC moved higher during the first hour after 10 of 13 releases when core CPI was 0.2% or lower. However, it registered gains in only four of the 10 instances when core inflation reached 0.3% or more.

The figures suggest that Tuesday’s inflation outcome could play an important role in determining whether Bitcoin manages to recover or faces additional downside pressure.

October CPI Forecasts Suggest Inflation May Be Losing Momentum

Most economists anticipate a moderation in U.S. inflation, although projections differ across financial institutions. A survey of 17 banks and research organizations conducted by The Wall Street Journal estimates median monthly increases of 0.25% for headline CPI and 0.22% for core CPI. WSJ reporter Nick Timiraos shared the findings on X.

The survey includes the following projections:

• Headline inflation: Estimates range from 0.14% at Nomura to 0.29% at Pinebrook Capital. September’s reading was 0.65%.
• Core inflation: Forecasts range from 0.13% at Nomura to 0.28% at BNP Paribas and Pinebrook Capital, following September’s 0.33% increase.
• Annual CPI: September’s headline inflation rate reached 3.7%, while core CPI was reported at 2.6%.

The variation in estimates means the final report could produce a different market response depending on how the figures compare with expectations. The BLS publishes monthly CPI changes rounded to one decimal place, leaving the possibility of a reported core reading between 0.1% and 0.3%.

If core inflation comes in at 0.3%, it would indicate that monthly price pressures have remained broadly unchanged from September. Such a result could weaken hopes for a meaningful improvement in the inflation outlook.

Another factor complicating comparisons is the October 2025 government shutdown. The disruption prevented the BLS from releasing that month’s CPI report, making a standard year-over-year comparison more difficult.

CPI Data Could Influence the Fed’s December Interest-Rate Decision

Tuesday’s report carries additional importance because it is the final scheduled inflation release before the Federal Reserve’s December 8–9 meeting.

Financial markets are currently leaning toward another increase in borrowing costs. Polymarket data showed an 86.5% probability of a 25-basis-point rate increase on Tuesday morning, while the probability of rates remaining unchanged stood at 11.5%.

Interest-rate increases generally create a challenging environment for Bitcoin. Higher yields can encourage investors to move toward traditional income-generating assets, reducing demand for cryptocurrencies and other investments that do not offer conventional interest payments.

A softer October CPI reading could change those expectations by suggesting that inflationary pressure is easing. If investors become less concerned about another rate increase, Bitcoin could benefit from improved risk appetite.

However, an inflation figure above expectations could reinforce the case for tighter monetary policy. This could put additional pressure on BTC and the broader digital asset market.

Historical CPI Data Reveals Bitcoin’s Reaction to Inflation Surprises

Bitcoin’s performance across 24 CPI releases since October 2024 provides a useful reference for evaluating Tuesday’s potential market reaction.

The analysis examines Binance trading activity during the 60 minutes following each 8:30 a.m. ET inflation announcement. The results show that CPI releases have historically produced larger price swings than ordinary trading sessions during the same hour.

The main findings are:

• Larger hourly trading ranges: Bitcoin’s median high-to-low movement reached 1.17% following CPI releases, compared with 0.62% during the equivalent period on other weekdays.
• Lower core inflation: When monthly core CPI was 0.2% or below, BTC finished higher in 10 of 13 cases, with an average hourly gain of 0.45%.
• Higher core inflation: When the reading reached 0.3% or above, Bitcoin advanced in just four of 10 cases, averaging a 0.11% decline.

These results indicate that Bitcoin has historically responded more positively to lower core inflation readings. Nevertheless, the pattern reflects past market behavior rather than a guaranteed outcome for the upcoming announcement.

The strongest negative reaction in the dataset occurred on February 12, 2025. Core CPI increased by 0.4%, while Bitcoin lost 1.9% during the first hour. A 0.3% reading in the previous month also coincided with a 1.4% hourly decline.

BTC Price Analysis: Will $73,510 Hold After the CPI Announcement?

Bitcoin remains above its recent two-month low, but the technical outlook continues to favor sellers as long as the cryptocurrency trades below its major moving averages.

BTC was recently changing hands around $74,398 on Binance, approximately 1.2% above Sunday’s low of $73,510.

The daily chart shows Bitcoin trading below both its 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMAs). This indicates that the market has not yet established a convincing bullish recovery.

Key resistance levels to watch:

• $75,599: Monday’s high and the first important level buyers need to overcome.
• $76,481: The 200-day EMA, which could act as resistance during a recovery attempt.
• $79,128: The 50-day EMA and a higher resistance target.

Important support levels:

• $74,177: Tuesday’s intraday low.
• $73,510: Sunday’s two-month bottom and the immediate support level.
• $73,027: The August 21 low, which could become the next downside target if bearish momentum strengthens.

A favorable inflation report could encourage buyers to push Bitcoin toward $75,599, followed by the 200-day EMA near $76,481. Conversely, stronger inflation could renew selling pressure and bring the $73,510 support level into focus.

The initial 60-minute reaction following the CPI release will be particularly important. Historical data shows that Bitcoin maintained the same direction over the subsequent 24 hours in 20 of the 24 announcements analyzed.

Although this trend does not guarantee a similar outcome on Tuesday, it highlights the importance of the initial market response. Traders will be watching whether softer inflation attracts buyers or whether persistent price pressures trigger another move lower for Bitcoin.