Bitcoin Recovery Pauses as Last Underwater Cohort Remains Unprofitable

Bitcoin’s annual buyer cohorts and U.S. spot ETF investors are pointing to several important price levels as BTC trades below $84,000.

Checkonchain data shows that the 2025 buyer cohort is the only yearly group currently underwater. These investors acquired bitcoin at an average price of roughly $88,000, potentially making that level a major resistance area as recent buyers may sell when prices return to their breakeven point.

Bitcoin climbed to around $87,500 in September before consolidating and eventually falling below $84,000 by Wednesday.

Throughout the market cycle, the volume-weighted average cost of each annual buyer group has repeatedly acted as either support or resistance. As BTC approaches a cohort’s average purchase price, some investors may choose to exit at breakeven, while others may see the level as an opportunity to accumulate.

The 2024 cohort has an average cost basis near $82,100. Bitcoin touched that level in May but failed to hold the advance, later falling toward $60,000. It eventually broke above the $82,100 area in August.

The 2023 cohort’s average cost basis is currently around $65,000 and has repeatedly provided support. During bitcoin’s decline toward $60,000 in February, the cohort’s cost basis was also near that level. It remained broadly intact as support through the 2026 bear market, although BTC briefly dipped below it.

The 2026 buyer group has an average cost basis of approximately $73,500. These investors have generally remained profitable since late August, when bitcoin moved above their average entry price.

U.S. spot bitcoin ETF investors provide another important reference point. Their average cost basis, calculated from deposits into the funds, is currently about $82,300.

ETF holders only recently returned to an overall profit position for the first time this year. If bitcoin extends its decline, the $82,300 ETF cost basis could therefore become an important support level.