New Quarter, Same Bitcoin Range as BTC Hovers Between $82K and $85K

Bitcoin opened the new quarter in the same narrow range that has defined its recent trading, with the cryptocurrency continuing to move between $82,000 and $85,000 after more than a week of choppy conditions.

BTC briefly climbed past $85,000 on Wednesday after U.S. inflation came in below expectations, easing concerns about further Federal Reserve rate hikes. The move was short-lived, though, as bitcoin failed to sustain the breakout and spot ETF demand weakened.

U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETFs recorded $148.7 million in net outflows Wednesday, according to SoSoValue. The withdrawal ended a nine-day inflow streak worth $3.08 billion, the largest dollar-value inflow run of the year.

ETF momentum had already started to fade before Wednesday’s reversal. Daily inflows reached nearly $1 billion on Sept. 21 and then declined through the following sessions. Bitfinex analysts said the market needs stronger daily ETF demand for bitcoin to absorb the supply positioned above its current price.

“Daily pace remains the key determinant for clearing overhead supply,” the analysts said in a market note.

Bitfinex’s Absorption-to-Emission Ratio (BAER) has fallen alongside the slowdown in ETF purchases. The metric measures bitcoin bought by ETFs against the roughly 450 BTC produced by miners each day. BAER dropped from 25.6x on Sept. 21 to 1.8x on Sept. 29.

Bitfinex estimates that approximately 1.39 million BTC of breakeven supply sits between $84,000 and $86,500. The analysts said BAER would need to rise toward 5.0x, equivalent to about $190 million in daily ETF purchases, to absorb that supply.

Bond Market Remains a Macro Concern

The ongoing weakness in the bond market is another factor investors are watching. Alex Kuptsikevich, chief analyst at FxPro, said the continued bond selloff could create volatility across financial markets.

“The persistence of the bond sell-off is a very worrying sign, capable of triggering a sell-off across all markets almost overnight,” Kuptsikevich said in an email.

He pointed out that turmoil in traditional finance has sometimes benefited cryptocurrencies, but said it is impossible to know when market caution might turn into panic.

Altcoins Move in Different Directions

While bitcoin remained stuck in its range, several altcoins posted substantial gains.

Stacks’ STX rose about 26% over 24 hours to roughly $0.39, putting it among the strongest large-cap performers. The rally coincided with Stacks founder Muneeb Ali being named CEO of Stacks Labs as the project works to expand adoption of its bitcoin staking products.

Midnight’s NIGHT advanced about 23% over 24 hours to $0.04, extending a rally that has lasted several sessions. The token was up approximately 7% since midnight UTC after gaining 21% Wednesday.

Ethena’s ENA and Near Protocol’s NEAR climbed around 11% and 10%, respectively. ENA traded near $0.27, taking its seven-day gain above 30%.

QNT continued to experience sharp price swings, rising about 9% to roughly $290 in some market snapshots. The token has more than tripled over the past week amid repeated rallies and reversals.

AVAX and ICP moved lower despite the broader strength, falling about 5% and 4%, respectively. The declines partially reversed Tuesday’s gains, when the two tokens rose 7% and 8.3% since midnight.

The CoinDesk DeFi Select Index gained 1% over 24 hours. The Computing Select and CoinDesk 80 indexes rose 0.3% and 0.2%, respectively, while most other major indexes edged down.

Derivatives Activity Stays Measured

Bitcoin open interest declined to $20.9 billion from $21.8 billion, while funding rates remained broadly unchanged near 3% annualized.

On Deribit, the three-month annualized basis climbed from below 5% to above 6%, pointing to somewhat stronger demand for leveraged long exposure.

Options positioning also shifted toward calls, with the 24-hour call/put ratio reaching 83% in favor of calls from 66%/34% previously. One-week delta skew fell to about 4% from roughly 15%.

The at-the-money volatility term structure remained in contango but edged lower, with front-end volatility near 29.5% and longer-dated volatility around 40% through mid-2027. The data indicate a relatively calm volatility environment, with strong call activity but limited premium being paid for upside protection.

Coinglass reported about $100 million in liquidations over the past 24 hours, split roughly evenly between long and short positions. Bitcoin, ether and other assets accounted for $100 million, $51 million and $26 million in notional liquidations, respectively.

Binance’s liquidation heatmap highlights $84,800 as a key level to monitor if bitcoin attempts another move higher.