Bitcoin Has Weathered Higher Bond Yields Over Time, Historical Data Shows

Bitcoin has not maintained a meaningful long-term relationship with rising bond yields, although periods of intense volatility in government bond markets can still weigh on the cryptocurrency in the short term.

Higher yields are traditionally considered a headwind for bitcoin because they improve the appeal of interest-bearing assets. Despite that theory, BTC’s historical price data shows little consistent correlation with government bond yields.

The relationship came back into focus Wednesday when the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield surged 15 basis points above 5.13%, reaching its highest level since 2007. The move also pushed yields higher across several other major bond markets.

The conventional explanation is that higher yields increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as bitcoin and gold. As bond returns rise, investors may have greater incentive to allocate capital toward fixed income.

But bitcoin’s historical data tells a different story.

CoinDesk’s analysis found that the 90-day correlation between bitcoin’s daily returns and daily moves in the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield was -0.18. Over 180 days, the correlation was -0.06, while the one-year figure stood at -0.03. BTC has also shown similarly weak relationships with government bond yields in other countries.

BTC Remains a Distinct Portfolio Asset

Bitcoin’s low correlation with bonds can provide diversification for investors because the cryptocurrency does not consistently follow traditional interest-rate-sensitive assets.

Lacie Zhang, research lead at Bitget Wallet, told CoinDesk that bitcoin’s near-zero relationship with Treasury yields can be a portfolio advantage. She said the data suggests BTC is not simply behaving like a duration or rates asset, noting that the 90-day correlation had recently been around -0.17 and at times moved even closer to zero.

Bitcoin’s performance since 2021 provides another example. The cryptocurrency has gained 191% and reached a record $126,000 last October. During that period, 10-year yields rose more than 500 basis points in the U.K. and France and more than 400 basis points in the U.S., Australia, Germany and Italy.

Japan’s 10-year yield increased 296 basis points, while Switzerland’s rose 105 basis points. China’s yields declined amid the country’s ongoing struggle with deflation.

Bond Volatility Is the Near-Term Threat

A weak correlation with yield levels does not mean bitcoin is insulated from bond-market turbulence. Rapid increases in volatility can tighten financial conditions, raise financing costs and cause investors to reduce exposure to riskier assets.

The MOVE Index, which tracks expected volatility in Treasury securities, jumped 21% to 95 points Wednesday, its highest level since April 1. Bitcoin dropped from approximately $87,200 to $83,500 during the session. The decline could also have been partly driven by profit-taking after BTC’s recent rally.

If Treasury-market volatility remains elevated or increases further, bitcoin could experience additional short-term pressure even if its long-term relationship with yields remains weak.

Strong U.S. Data Pushes Global Yields Higher

The latest jump in Treasury yields was primarily driven by stronger U.S. economic data rather than renewed fiscal concerns.

S&P Global’s flash U.S. Composite PMI climbed to 58.4 in September from 56.0 in August, reaching its highest reading since July 2021. The survey indicated that business activity was expanding at its fastest pace in more than five years while inflationary pressure was also building.

The data strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve could continue raising rates following its 25-basis-point increase in September. Both the two-year and 10-year Treasury yields rose after the report.

Yields also climbed elsewhere. France’s 10-year yield increased more than the U.S. benchmark on Wednesday, while the U.K. recorded a move that was nearly as large.

Robin Brooks, senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and former chief economist at the IIF, said Italy and Greece experienced similar pressure. In a Substack post Wednesday, Brooks said strong U.S. data was followed by renewed market pressure on countries considered fiscally vulnerable.

Brooks noted that markets have been scrutinizing heavily indebted countries for some time. Statista data showed Japan’s debt-to-GDP ratio above 200% at the end of 2025, compared with 123.8% for the U.S., 115% for France, 102% for the U.K. and 100% for China.

Switzerland’s federal debt was only 16% of GDP. Its lower debt burden and more moderate increase in 10-year yields have contributed to views among some analysts that the Swiss franc is becoming a haven currency and could increasingly take the place of the Japanese yen as a preferred carry currency.

For bitcoin, the long-term evidence remains clear that movements in bond yields, driven by fiscal conditions, growth or inflation, have not translated into a consistent relationship with BTC’s price.