Bitcoin Remains Range-Bound as Bond Yields Rise to Multi-Decade Peaks

Bitcoin remains locked in a narrow range as historically low volatility collides with a sharp rise in global bond yields. Traders are now waiting for the Federal Reserve’s July meeting minutes, hoping for fresh clues on the direction of interest rates.

Bitcoin was trading around $64,000, down roughly 0.5% since midnight UTC. The largest cryptocurrency has remained between $61,500 and $66,900 since July 8, with muted volatility reflecting a lack of strong directional momentum.

The biggest influence on markets has been the climb in global government bond yields. The U.S. 30-year Treasury yield briefly rose to 5.333%, its highest level in almost 20 years. Japan’s 10-year yield reached a 30-year high, while Germany’s 30-year Bund yield climbed to levels last seen in 2011. France’s comparable yield also reached its highest level since 2008.

The rise in yields coincided with a decline in U.S. equities. The Nasdaq 100 fell 1.3% Tuesday, its largest one-day decline since early August, while the S&P 500 recorded a third consecutive daily loss. Futures for both indexes have since stabilized.

Attention is now shifting to the Federal Reserve’s July meeting minutes, scheduled for release later Wednesday. The minutes could reveal how officials view the policy outlook after the central bank kept its benchmark rate at 3.5%-3.75%. Three of the 12 voting members had supported a rate increase.

Derivatives Point to Cautious Trading

CoinGlass data shows a slight bullish bias among short-term traders, with long positions making up about 51% of taker flow over periods of up to four hours. The daily long-short ratio, however, has turned marginally bearish, with shorts at 50.21%.

Bitcoin open interest has declined to approximately $21.8 billion from a peak of around $23 billion on Aug. 11. The combination of falling open interest and sideways price action suggests traders are closing positions rather than building new exposure while waiting for a catalyst.

Funding rates remain slightly above zero across major exchanges. Bitcoin’s open-interest-weighted rate is around 0.0049%, while Ethereum’s is about 0.0022%. The low levels indicate that leverage remains limited, reducing the risk of a large funding-driven squeeze.

The biggest liquidation over the past day involved a $23.35 million BTC-USD position on Hyperliquid. Total liquidations reached around $190.24 million, with shorts accounting for $113.27 million.

Ethereum led liquidations over the previous four hours, with roughly $5.35 million in positions wiped out. The concentration on the short side suggests forced short covering rather than a major increase in long exposure.

Bitcoin futures are still trading with a modest positive basis. The Aug. 28 contract carried an annualized basis near 12%, while Deribit’s Sept. 25 contract was around 7.12%, indicating measured bullish expectations without excessive positioning.

Deribit’s short-term implied volatility stood at about 20.4% for the Aug. 20 expiry, with options pricing an expected move of roughly $656 in either direction. Most activity was concentrated around $64,000-$65,000, suggesting traders are not anticipating a major move before the Fed minutes.

Altcoins Trade in Mixed Territory

ENA gained 2.99% to $0.0852, ranking among the day’s stronger performers after recent weakness.

LINK rose 1.82% to $9.70, maintaining gains following Standard Chartered’s bullish forecast and continuing to outperform several mid-cap DeFi tokens.

NEAR advanced 1.76% to $1.615, with the AI-related token attracting buying interest after a difficult stretch in mid-August.

PUMP dropped 3.23% to $0.002998, erasing most of Monday’s 7.8% rally as momentum faded.

CoinMarketCap’s Altcoin Season index remained at 44 out of 100, holding steady after falling to 37 on Aug. 7.