Unitree’s Market Debut Rockets 600% as Crypto Traders’ Valuation Bets Miss

Unitree Robotics delivered a stunning Shanghai debut, with its shares opening dramatically above both the IPO price and the valuation implied by a Hyperliquid perpetual contract.

Crypto traders had already placed an aggressive bet on Unitree before its stock-market debut, valuing the company at more than four times its official IPO valuation. But the robotics maker’s actual opening price surpassed even that lofty estimate.

The Hangzhou-based developer of humanoid and quadruped robots opened Wednesday at 1,100 yuan ($163.12), up 629% from its IPO price of 150.8 yuan. At that level, Unitree’s market capitalization reached roughly 445 billion yuan ($66 billion).

The company’s synthetic Hyperliquid market had traded between $92 and $94 the previous week, implying a valuation of around $38 billion, according to Allium. Unitree’s opening valuation was therefore about 75% above the level predicted by crypto traders ahead of the Shanghai debut.

Crypto Market Set the Stage for Unitree IPO

Unitree’s Hyperliquid contract is a perpetual futures instrument that enables traders to speculate on the company’s stock price without purchasing its shares.

The product was introduced by third-party developer xyz.trade using Hyperliquid’s infrastructure and trades continuously. It gave crypto participants an early venue to express their expectations for Unitree before the traditional equity market opened.

The valuation gap was substantial. Unitree entered the IPO with a valuation of approximately $9 billion, while the perpetual contract pushed that figure toward $38 billion.

Following the Shanghai opening, the crypto contract extended its gains. UNITREE-USDC climbed to around $121 on Wednesday morning, up approximately 20% over 24 hours after briefly exceeding $140.

Trading volume reached about $64 million, while open interest was near $29 million.

SpaceX Provides a Different Example

Unitree marks the second high-profile case this summer in which crypto traders attempted to price a company ahead of its traditional stock-market debut.

SpaceX was the first major test. Its Hyperliquid perpetual traded at roughly $170 per share ahead of the company’s June listing.

The stock initially climbed above $176 before finishing its first session at $161, ending close to the price anticipated by the crypto market.

The SpaceX contract, however, had considerably greater liquidity. Open interest stood near $216 million immediately before the IPO, with daily trading volume above $150 million.

Unitree’s roughly $29 million in open interest shows that substantially less capital supported its pre-IPO price discovery.

High Leverage Raises Unitree Trading Risks

The Unitree perpetual also illustrates the dangers of using leveraged crypto derivatives to speculate on conventional equities.

Traders can use leverage of as much as 10 times, making positions vulnerable to liquidation from relatively small price movements.

Those risks became more evident after the stock began trading. Unitree funding rates were around negative 0.13%, meaning short-position holders were paying traders on the long side to keep their positions open.

The contrasting SpaceX and Unitree outcomes show both the potential and limitations of crypto-based price discovery. SpaceX demonstrated that a perpetual contract can come remarkably close to predicting an IPO’s opening price.

Unitree told a different story: crypto traders recognized the stock’s potential and priced in a major premium ahead of its debut, but the traditional market ultimately pushed the opening valuation far beyond even those bullish expectations.