Live Market Update: Bitcoin Defends $64K as July Inflation Hits Forecasts

Bitcoin Holds Above $64K as July Inflation Matches Estimates

Blockchain data shows that Japanese Bitcoin treasury firm Metaplanet transferred 3,881 BTC between wallets belonging to the company rather than sending the coins to an exchange. The movement does not appear to be a sale, even as the company faces an estimated $1.4 billion unrealized loss on its Bitcoin holdings.

July CPI Comes in Line With Expectations

U.S. consumer prices rose broadly in line with forecasts in July. Headline CPI increased 0.1% from the previous month and was 3.4% higher than a year earlier.

Core CPI, which excludes food and energy costs, climbed 0.2% month over month and 2.5% annually.

Bitcoin held around the $64,000 mark following the release, while Nasdaq futures moved higher and Treasury yields declined.

Markets were pricing in a 44% probability of a Fed rate hike in September. That figure was below expectations before the CPI data and reflected the impact of recent weaker employment figures on monetary-policy forecasts.

Dollar Index Hovers at Critical Support

The U.S. Dollar Index is testing support along a bullish trendline that has remained intact since the index began recovering from its January low of 95.55.

A rebound from the current level could extend the dollar’s upward trend. A sustained break beneath the trendline, however, could indicate that the recent rally is losing strength.

The inflation outlook remains a key factor for the dollar. A stronger core CPI reading could have triggered fresh demand for the greenback by raising concerns about persistent price pressures.

Precious Metals Climb Ahead of Inflation Data

Gold and silver continued to post gains before the July CPI release.

Gold traded near $4,420 after advancing more than 1% over 24 hours and approximately 7% during the month. Silver moved above $66, gaining more than 2.5% in one day and around 12% over the month.

Bitcoin also traded above $64,000, although its 24-hour increase remained below 1%.

Traders Remain Divided on September Fed Policy

Investor sentiment was cautious before the inflation numbers, with geopolitical concerns adding to uncertainty across financial markets.

Kyle Rodda, senior analyst at Capital.com, said expectations for the Federal Reserve’s September decision were close to a 50-50 split following mixed signals from recent FOMC communications.

Markets had expected July core inflation to ease to 2.5%, with headline CPI also forecast to moderate. A hotter core reading or persistent increases in categories that feed into the Fed’s preferred PCE inflation measure could increase expectations for tighter policy and pressure stocks.

A softer report could reduce the likelihood of a September hike, especially after last week’s weaker-than-expected jobs data.

AI Stocks Lift Futures Before CPI Release

U.S. equity futures rose Wednesday as strong results from AI-focused companies improved market sentiment ahead of the inflation report.

CoreWeave surged 16% in after-hours trading as demand for AI computing remained strong. Super Micro rose 7.6% after delivering a revenue forecast that surpassed even the highest analyst estimates.

Nasdaq 100 futures gained roughly 0.3%, while South Korea’s Kospi jumped 4%. Samsung and SK Hynix each climbed around 6%.

The July CPI report was expected to show annual headline inflation slowing to 3.4% from 3.5%.

The data carried additional importance after the latest employment report reduced market expectations for a September rate increase to about 36%. A weaker inflation reading could strengthen expectations that the Fed will maintain its current policy stance.

Metaplanet Moves $247M of Bitcoin Internally

Metaplanet shifted 3,881 BTC worth approximately $247 million through several transactions over a three-hour period, according to Arkham data.

The Bitcoin moved from the company’s cold-storage wallets to newly created addresses that are also controlled by Metaplanet. None of the coins were sent to a crypto exchange.

Because the funds remained in self-custody, the transfer does not immediately increase exchange-based selling supply. The transaction therefore should not be interpreted as evidence of a Bitcoin sale on its own.

Metaplanet has previously made similar internal transfers. In March, the company moved almost 5,000 BTC through a combination of test transactions and larger transfers to new wallets. Analysts viewed that activity as a custody reorganization rather than an attempt to sell.

The latest on-chain movements appear consistent with that strategy, with no clear signs of distribution.

Metaplanet purchased its roughly 43,000 BTC at an average cost of approximately $96,000 per coin. With Bitcoin trading near $63,600, the company’s holdings are showing an estimated unrealized loss of $1.4 billion, or about 34%.

Since beginning its aggressive accumulation strategy in April 2024, Metaplanet has become one of the largest corporate Bitcoin buyers and has set a long-term target of holding 210,000 BTC.