Crypto prices tick up as easing US-Iran tensions lift market sentiment

Cryptocurrency markets edged higher at the start of the week as growing optimism around a potential U.S.-Iran agreement lifted risk sentiment. Iranian officials have arrived in Doha to continue negotiations, fueling expectations of a diplomatic breakthrough.

Bitcoin climbed about 1.6% over the past 24 hours to trade near $77,500, while ether posted a 1.4% gain. The broader CoinDesk 20 index rose roughly 1.56%, signaling a modest rebound across major digital assets.

Improved sentiment has been partly driven by activity on prediction markets, where traders are increasingly pricing in the likelihood of a deal. On Polymarket, the odds of a permanent agreement being reached this month surged to 37%, up from around 14% just days ago. Probabilities rise further over longer timeframes, with 46% odds for early June and 72% by late July. Trading volume tied to the outcome has climbed to approximately $178 million.

The shift follows remarks from U.S. President Donald Trump, who indicated that a framework agreement has been reached, though final approval is still pending. Meanwhile, senior Iranian officials—including Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Abbas Araghchi, and Abdolnaser Hemmati—have traveled to Doha to participate in the talks.

Discussions are expected to center on critical issues such as control of the Strait of Hormuz and Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium. Qatar and Pakistan are acting as mediators, with Iranian officials describing the current phase as a preliminary memorandum of understanding. Broader negotiations are anticipated to continue over the next one to two months.

The Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for global oil shipments, has experienced disruptions since late February amid heightened tensions involving the U.S. and Israel, although some shipping activity has resumed recently.

In traditional markets, oil prices fell sharply by 5.4% to about $91.30 per barrel, while gold gained 1.35% to reach $4,570 per ounce. The U.S. dollar also weakened slightly, with the Dollar Index slipping around 0.3%.

Despite the improving outlook, Trump struck a cautious tone, emphasizing that any agreement must be comprehensive. He warned that failure to finalize a deal could reignite tensions and potentially escalate into a broader conflict.