Bitcoin is under pressure and bond yields are increasing, but BTC implied volatility, a key measure of uncertainty, is still low.

Bitcoin’s implied volatility remains unusually subdued even as prices slide and macro conditions tighten, a divergence that some options traders say could present opportunities in volatility strategies.

Bitcoin BTC $77,249.23 has declined in recent days, falling from roughly $82,000 to $77,000 since May 15. The drop has coincided with rising U.S. Treasury yields, a combination that typically signals increased market uncertainty. However, Bitcoin’s options pricing has yet to reflect that shift.

Implied volatility, which measures expected future price swings, has remained relatively flat despite the selloff. That stability is drawing attention from derivatives traders who believe the market may be underestimating near-term risk.

The roughly 6% decline has also come alongside heavy outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs and firmer U.S. Treasury yields. At the same time, stress in traditional markets is rising, with the MOVE index—tracking implied volatility in U.S. Treasuries—jumping from 69% to 85%, highlighting growing turbulence in fixed income markets.

Under normal conditions, this type of macro backdrop would typically drive higher demand for crypto hedging and push implied volatility higher. So far, that response has been muted.

Bitcoin’s 30-day annualized implied volatility index (BVIV) is holding near 42%, according to TradingView data, only slightly above its year-to-date low of about 40%. This suggests options markets are still pricing in relatively calm conditions despite broader financial instability.

The disconnect between rising macro uncertainty and subdued crypto volatility is leading some traders to argue that volatility risk is being underpriced. In their view, the market may not be fully accounting for potential sharp moves ahead.

“In the options market, BTC IV is historically low: implieds have compressed to the high-30s/low-40s, printing new 2026 lows. That’s cheap vol in absolute terms,” said Jean-David Péquignot, Chief Commercial Officer at Deribit, the largest crypto options exchange, which accounts for more than 70% of global crypto options trading volume.

Péquignot added that low volatility environments often make long-volatility strategies more attractive. One commonly used approach is the long straddle, where traders buy both a call and a put option at the same strike price and expiry.

This structure is designed to profit from large price moves in either direction: gains on the call if Bitcoin rises, or gains on the put if it falls. It is typically used when traders expect significant volatility but are uncertain about direction.

“BTC vol being this cheap while price is at a key breakout level can be a good setup for long vol / long straddle positioning ahead of a macro catalyst (next CPI print, Fed speech),” Péquignot said.