Brazil’s main stock exchange, B3, is set to launch a new suite of derivatives products that allow investors to trade on the probability of future events, marking a significant step toward regulated prediction-style markets in the country.
Starting April 27, the exchange will introduce six “Event Contracts” tied to assets such as bitcoin, the U.S. dollar, and the Ibovespa index. These instruments function similarly to prediction market platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, with contract prices ranging up to 100 reais (about $19), reflecting the market’s implied probability of a given outcome.
The contracts are regulated by Brazil’s securities watchdog, the Comissão de Valores Mobiliários (CVM), and are restricted to professional investors. Eligibility is limited to those with at least 10 million reais (approximately $1.9 million) in assets or those holding CVM certification.
The initial offering includes contracts based on both mini futures and spot price movements for bitcoin, the dollar, and the Ibovespa. Like other event-based derivatives, they feature predefined payouts and capped risk, with no physical delivery of the underlying asset. Instead, all positions are cash-settled.
According to Luiz Masagão, B3’s Vice President of Products and Clients, the initiative is part of the exchange’s broader effort to modernize Brazil’s derivatives market. He noted that B3 has already experimented with contracts linked to central bank decisions and has been closely monitoring the growth of prediction markets globally.
The exchange is also advancing its digital asset strategy. Late last year, B3 revealed plans to develop a tokenization platform and issue a stablecoin, both of which are expected to launch within the year.
B3’s rollout represents Brazil’s first federally regulated foray into prediction-style markets, entering a space that has until now operated largely in regulatory gray zones. Domestic platforms such as Prévias and Palpitada have already gained traction, while U.S.-based Kalshi has partnered with XP International, Brazil’s largest brokerage, to offer event contracts linked to Brazilian economic indicators.
The launch comes amid a broader global surge in prediction market activity. Total notional volume is approaching $160 billion, with more than 3 million users participating worldwide, according to Dune Analytics data. Platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi dominate the sector, accounting for the majority of trading activity.
Traditional financial players are also taking notice. Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, has recently increased its investment in Polymarket, bringing its total commitment close to $2 billion.
Despite the rapid growth, regulatory clarity remains a challenge. In Brazil, it is still uncertain whether oversight of such markets will ultimately fall under the CVM, the Central Bank, or the Ministry of Finance, reflecting a broader global debate over how prediction markets should be governed.
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