XRP Sheds 10%, Spotlight Shifts to BTC/JPY Technical Setup as Rate Cut Odds Increase -

Bitcoin-Yen Faces Breakdown Risk Despite Rising Fed Rate Cut Bets; XRP, ETH, SOL Stay Under Pressure

Crypto markets are navigating a mix of macro tailwinds and technical headwinds as traders boost expectations for U.S. rate cuts in 2026. While this supports the broader bullish case for Bitcoin, the BTC/JPY pair is flashing caution signals as a descending triangle pattern tightens near record highs.

BTC/JPY: Descending Triangle at Highs Raises Red Flags

With BTC/USD stuck near $120,000 and offering limited directional clues, focus has shifted to Bitcoin’s performance against the Japanese yen. On bitFlyer, BTC/JPY is locked in a descending triangle pattern — a structure often viewed as bearish due to its lower highs and flat support near ¥17,160,000 (~$117,000).

A confirmed breakdown below this level would suggest a deeper correction toward trendline support. On the flip side, a breakout through the descending resistance could reignite bullish momentum and set the stage for new highs.

Fueling the upside scenario, traders are now pricing in 76 basis points of Fed rate cuts for 2026 — up sharply from 25 bps in April — as U.S. economic data softens. In addition, rising long-term bond yields signal expectations of ongoing fiscal support.

AI Outlook: BTC/JPY is nearing a critical decision point. A breakdown would challenge bullish momentum, while yen strength could further pressure the pair.

Key BTC/JPY Levels

Resistance: ¥18,800,000 (~$121,181), $120,000
Support: ¥17,160,000 (~$117,000), $116,000, $111,965

Yen Strength a Wildcard for Risk Assets

The Japanese yen could weigh on crypto sentiment more broadly. The 30-year U.S.-Japan yield spread has dropped to its narrowest since August 2022, a sign of potential yen appreciation.

A stronger JPY could spark a wave of risk aversion and dampen appetite for volatile assets like Bitcoin.

XRP Dives 10%: Bearish Signals Confirm Breakdown

XRP plunged over 10% in 24 hours, falling to $2.99 — the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of its rally from $1.90. A modest recovery to $3.10 followed, but momentum remains weak.

The Guppy moving averages have flipped bearish, and XRP trades below the Ichimoku cloud — both confirming downside bias. A break below $2.99 opens the door to $2.57, the 61.8% retracement level.

AI Outlook: XRP has broken both its uptrend and range support, confirming a short-term bearish shift.

Key XRP Levels

Resistance: $3.35, $3.65, $4.00
Support: $2.99, $2.65, $2.57

ETH Weakens Within Descending Channel

Ethereum continues to slide in a downward-sloping channel, printing lower highs and lower lows. A bearish crossover between the 50- and 100-hour SMAs, along with a weakening 200-hour SMA, signals continued downside.

Prices now sit below the Ichimoku cloud, and only a reclaim of $3,740 would shift the short-term tone.