With Four-Year Cycle Dead, Bitcoin Crash Seems Unlikely: Hayes

Bitcoin’s traditional four-year market cycle is no longer a reliable predictor of price, according to Arthur Hayes, co-founder and CIO of Maelstrom. With global monetary policy shifting toward more accommodative measures and fiat liquidity expected to expand, Hayes believes the current bull run will persist.

Hayes explained that past Bitcoin bear markets—in 2014, 2018, and 2022—were primarily caused by monetary tightening, not halving events, which historically occur every four years. On each of these occasions, BTC lost 70%–80% from its peak. CoinDesk also noted in 2023 that Bitcoin’s so-called four-year cycle is more closely tied to fluctuations in fiat liquidity than the mining reward halvings themselves.

“Traders rely on the four-year pattern to predict the end of this bull run,” Hayes wrote in his essay “Long Live the King!” “That cycle is dead. The surge in fiat liquidity will keep Bitcoin climbing.”

Why This Cycle Is Different

• The U.S. is pursuing policies to stimulate growth and unlock trillions in home equity, while the Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points in September 2025, with more reductions expected.
• Japan may adopt ultra-stimulatory measures under its new prime minister, echoing Abenomics-style policies.
• China’s focus on ending deflation suggests liquidity will remain ample, rather than constricting the market.

“Money will be cheaper and more plentiful. Bitcoin continues to rise in anticipation of this highly probable future,” Hayes concluded.

With supportive global monetary conditions, Hayes argues that the historical four-year halving cycle no longer constrains Bitcoin’s trajectory, leaving the bull market poised to continue.