With a $5B Options Expiry Looming, Bitcoin’s Max Pain Level Signals Potential Price Strength

Bitcoin Braces for $5 Billion Options Expiry as Volatility Rises

The crypto market is gearing up for a major options expiry event, with over $5 billion in Bitcoin (BTC) options contracts set to expire on Deribit this Friday at 08:00 UTC. This could trigger heightened volatility, especially as BTC struggles to regain momentum after its recent downturn.

Deribit’s volatility index (DVOL) had been trending lower for most of 2025, reflecting Bitcoin’s prolonged consolidation. However, after BTC’s sharp drop below $90,000, DVOL briefly surged to 52 before retreating below 50, indicating a short-lived wave of uncertainty.

With Bitcoin trading well below key levels, a large portion of options contracts are now out-of-the-money (OTM), meaning they are unlikely to be exercised.

According to Deribit data:

• $3.9 billion (78%) of contracts will expire worthless, as they are OTM.
• Nearly 100% of call options (bullish bets) are OTM due to Bitcoin’s recent price decline.
• The remaining $1.1 billion (22%) is in-the-money (ITM), dominated by put options, which are currently profitable.

The Max Pain Effect

A key metric traders are watching is the max pain level, which stands at $98,000—almost $10,000 higher than BTC’s current price. The max pain theory suggests that market makers, who profit when most options expire worthless, might attempt to push BTC’s price closer to this level before expiry.

“As we approach the monthly expiry, Bitcoin options traders should be aware of the max pain level at $98,000, tied to $5 billion in notional value. With open interest clustered at this point, market makers may try to influence BTC’s price action, potentially driving increased volatility,” PowerTrade shared on X.

With such a massive expiry looming, traders should brace for sharp price swings as Bitcoin’s price action plays out against the backdrop of this high-stakes options event.