Why Bitcoin Could Thrive Under Trump’s Tariff Policies

As “Liberation Day” approaches and the Trump Administration prepares to announce sweeping new tariffs, anxiety is mounting across global markets — and the crypto sector is no exception. But despite the current gloom, some analysts argue that this environment of economic disruption could end up working in Bitcoin’s favor.

Initial expectations for a crypto-friendly Trump era haven’t played out as many hoped. Early-year optimism, buoyed by discussions of regulatory reform and the potential creation of a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve, helped push BTC above $100,000. But the rally was short-lived. By late March, Bitcoin had slipped into the mid-$80,000 range, surprising bulls and confounding analysts.

One key factor: Bitcoin’s growing correlation with traditional assets. As fears of a global slowdown rise — fueled by protectionist trade measures — both equities and bonds have faced headwinds, dragging crypto down with them.

“Risk appetite is deteriorating, and that’s weighing heavily on Bitcoin,” said Marc Ostwald, Chief Economist at ADM Investor Services International. “Gold, by contrast, continues to benefit as a preferred safe haven. Crypto hasn’t quite earned that status yet.”

Ostwald also noted that global reserve managers are slowly turning away from the U.S. dollar, spooked by its long-term volatility and the unpredictability of U.S. trade policy. While gold is currently their hedge of choice, Bitcoin could be next.

Indeed, some see crypto’s current weakness as a temporary misalignment. Omid Malekan, Columbia Business School lecturer and author of The Story of the Blockchain, believes Bitcoin may ultimately mirror gold’s performance.

“Tariffs introduce massive uncertainty — and that’s fertile ground for alternative stores of value,” Malekan said. “While Bitcoin is still viewed by some as a tech stock proxy, its growing role as digital gold shouldn’t be overlooked. If gold is rising because of tariffs, it’s only a matter of time before Bitcoin follows.”

Malekan’s argument: Tariffs disrupt traditional trade and currency relationships, pushing investors to reassess what assets truly preserve value.

Grayscale’s Head of Research, Zach Pandl, echoes that sentiment. He believes much of the market’s reaction to tariffs may already be baked in, and that upcoming announcements could actually soothe investor nerves.

President Trump is scheduled to outline new trade penalties this Wednesday — targeting 15 nations, including China, Canada, and Mexico — in what the administration is branding as “reciprocal tariffs.” The announcement is set for 4 p.m. ET and could mark a turning point in market sentiment.

“If the announcement is structured and predictable, I expect markets — including crypto — to rebound,” Pandl said. “This could give investors space to refocus on long-term fundamentals, which are increasingly bullish.”

Pandl points to moves like Circle’s IPO as evidence of institutional confidence. And with his background as a Goldman Sachs economist, he’s particularly attuned to shifts in the global currency landscape.

“I believe tariffs will ultimately undermine the dollar’s dominance,” he said. “That opens the door for decentralized currencies. Bitcoin isn’t just a hedge — it’s a challenger to the entire system.”

Despite recent price dips, Pandl remains optimistic. He expects Bitcoin to set new all-time highs before the year ends. “I wouldn’t have left my career on Wall Street if I didn’t believe in Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory,” he added.

In an increasingly fragmented world, Bitcoin may find strength not in stability — but in chaos.