What to Track in Q4: Bitcoin Seasonals, XRP/BTC Dynamics, Dollar Index, Nvidia, Plus Others

As we enter the final quarter of 2025, crypto traders are monitoring key charts and technical levels to navigate a market marked by mixed signals and heightened volatility. Historical trends, moving averages, cross-asset correlations, and equity benchmarks all offer insight into potential price action in the coming months.

Seasonal Trends Point to Q4 Strength

Bitcoin and Ether have historically performed well in the last quarter of the year. Since 2013, Bitcoin has averaged an 85% gain in Q4, with November the strongest month (+46%) and October also showing healthy growth (+21%), according to Coinglass.

Ether has shown gains in Q4 as well, although its most pronounced seasonal performance historically occurs in Q1. With Bitcoin trading around $109,418 and Ether near $4,022, traders are watching whether seasonal tailwinds can offset short-term weakness.

Bitcoin’s Key Support Levels

Bitcoin has fallen 5% this week, testing late-August lows near $107,300. Should this support fail, the 200-day simple moving average at $104,200 becomes the next focus.

The 50-week SMA, currently near $98,900, has reliably acted as support during the ongoing bull cycle since early 2023. Maintaining above this level remains critical for sustaining broader bullish momentum.

XRP/BTC: Compression Near Breakout

Despite a 32% gain in 2025, XRP has been range-bound against Bitcoin, with the XRP/BTC pair confined to a narrow trading channel since early 2021.

Price is now approaching the upper boundary of this long-term compression. A breakout could unleash significant upside for XRP relative to BTC, as accumulated pressure from years of low-volatility trading is released.

SMST ETF: Signals Potential Weakness for BTC and MSTR

The Defiance Daily Target 2x Short MSTR ETF (SMST) rose to a five-month high of $35.65, forming an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern — often signaling a bullish reversal for the ETF.

Because SMST moves inversely to MicroStrategy (MSTR) stock, which holds 639,835 BTC, the ETF’s move suggests potential downside risk for both MSTR and Bitcoin if buying pressure continues.

Dollar Index: Watching the Double Bottom

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has formed a double bottom near 96.30. A breakout above 100.26 would target 104.00, reinforcing dollar strength and placing pressure on risk assets, including crypto.

Failure below 96.00 could trigger renewed risk-taking, making these levels critical for traders to watch.

Nvidia: Gauge of Risk Appetite

Nvidia (NVDA), a key bellwether for global risk assets, is testing the upper boundary of a broadening channel defined by highs and lows from mid-2024 to April 2025. The rally has stalled since late July, hinting at possible bullish exhaustion.

A reversal here could mark the start of a risk-off period, potentially impacting cryptocurrencies as capital rotates away from speculative assets.