What Are Seasoned Bitcoin and Ether Traders Anticipating for the Upcoming Summer?

As summer nears, experienced traders in Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) are taking defensive positions, signaling caution even while broader sentiment across the crypto market remains generally positive.

Data from crypto derivatives exchange Deribit reveals traders are leaning on the 25-delta risk reversal strategy — a key options measure that shows whether the market favors upside or downside protection. Right now, it’s firmly skewed toward puts, with negative readings for both BTC and ETH stretching through June, July, and August. This reflects a heightened appetite for hedging against possible declines.

In Ether’s case, puts have grown significantly pricier through late July, underscoring a defensive stance among traders concerned about volatility. The hedging activity suggests market players are preparing to shield their spot and futures portfolios from potential sharp downturns.

“Risk reversals in both BTC and ETH remain clearly tilted toward downside protection across the coming months. This indicates that long holders are actively hedging and bracing for potential corrections,” said QCP Capital, based in Singapore, in a market note.

This caution is also showing up in the over-the-counter (OTC) markets. On trading platform Paradigm, several of the top BTC trades last week involved a put spread and a bearish risk reversal. In the ETH market, traders opened long positions in $2,450 puts while executing short strangles — strategies designed to benefit from increased volatility.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin has been locked above the $100,000 level for over 40 days, according to CoinDesk data. Analysts suggest selling by miners and profit-taking from long-term holders have kept BTC prices largely range-bound, neutralizing bullish forces from strong spot ETF inflows.

“Bitcoin’s recent sideways trend suggests the current price level might be too high for many retail participants. Open interest in BTC options has been rising, and the increasing 25-delta put-call skew on 30-day contracts signals growing demand for short-term protective puts,” noted Coinbase Institutional in its weekly report.

Adding to traders’ caution, Bitcoin closed below its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) on Friday for the first time since mid-April — a technical signal that could trigger further selling and push prices beneath the psychologically significant $100,000 level.

Not everyone, however, sees a major downturn ahead. Analyst Cas Abbé highlighted Bitcoin’s strong on-balance volume readings, indicating persistent underlying buying interest. Abbé remains optimistic that BTC could rise to $130,000–$135,000 by the end of the third quarter.