Well-Known Analyst Says Bitcoin’s True Capitulation Level Is $65K

Bitcoin’s Bottom Could Be Near $65K, Analyst James Check Predicts, with Strong Support at $50K

Where is Bitcoin (BTC) headed next in terms of price?

While there’s a possibility that Bitcoin has already hit its bottom, on-chain analyst James Check believes that a true market bottom may only materialize after a significant capitulation event.

Check identifies $65,000 as the “true market mean,” a critical level representing the average cost basis of active investors. He argues that when Bitcoin approaches this level, many investors may experience unrealized losses, and even long-term holders—those who have owned Bitcoin for five or more years—could face underwater positions. Interestingly, this target price aligns closely with Michael Saylor’s strategy, which has a cost basis near $67,500.

The Path After Capitulation

While Check expects Bitcoin to face further declines if it hits the $65,000 zone, he sees the $49,000-$50,000 range as a solid level of long-term support. This area marks the launch of Bitcoin ETFs in 2024 and a $1 trillion market cap for the asset. According to Check, a price drop to $40,000 would only be likely in the event of a global recession.

In addition, Check pointed to Bitcoin’s extended “chopsolidation” phase in 2024, where the cryptocurrency traded in a wide range between $50K and $70K for months. He believes this consolidation period has helped form a robust support foundation for Bitcoin moving forward.