VanEck’s latest “Mid-November 2025 Bitcoin ChainCheck” report indicates that Bitcoin’s recent sell-off is being driven by mid-cycle holders, while long-term whales remain largely unmoved.
The asset manager noted that wallets holding coins moved within the past five years account for most of the recent selling. In contrast, coins untouched for more than five years continue to accumulate, adding roughly 278,000 BTC over the past two years—evidence of persistent conviction among long-term holders.
Bitcoin recently traded near multi-month lows at $86,696 (9:15 p.m. UTC Thursday), down 3.2% in 24 hours and about 31% below its October 6 all-time high of $126,080, according to CoinGecko. Analysts link the decline to forced liquidations, long-term holder distribution, and heightened volatility in offshore derivatives markets.
Nic Puckrin, CEO of Coin Bureau, told Euronews that the main catalysts include long-term selling by “OG” holders, economic uncertainty, and a mass deleveraging event on October 10. “Older, large-balance holders have been selling for several weeks, creating a flood of supply hitting the market,” he said.
Carol Alexander, finance professor at the University of Sussex, added that aggressive trading strategies on offshore platforms, such as “spoofing” and “laddering,” have also contributed to sharp price swings.
VanEck highlighted that the 3–5 year coin cohort has fallen 32% over the past two years as coins changed addresses—a trend attributed to turnover among mid-cycle traders rather than capitulation from decade-long holders.
Speculative positioning has also reset: open interest in Bitcoin perpetual futures has declined 20% in BTC terms and 32% in USD terms since October 9, with funding rates dropping to levels typical of previous “washed-out” periods. Meanwhile, smaller wallets holding 100–1,000 BTC have increased balances by 9% over six months and 23% over a year, even as the largest whales trimmed positions.
VanEck concluded that the combination of long-term holder stability, mid-cycle rotation, and futures-market capitulation has put Bitcoin into a “reset” state—historically a setup that has preceded tactical rebounds
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