Twelve Months After Sinking to $49K on Yen Carry Trade Turmoil, Bitcoin Has Surged 130%.

Bitcoin Surges 130% Since Yen Carry Trade Shock as Long-Term Holders Accumulate

One year after a sharp unwind in the yen carry trade rocked global markets, Bitcoin has staged a powerful recovery, rising over 130% from its local low of $49,000.

In August 2024, Japan’s pivot toward tighter monetary policy triggered a spike in global bond yields, undermining the appeal of borrowing in yen to fund higher-yielding investments. The rapid shift led to broad risk-off sentiment, sending capital fleeing from equities and digital assets alike. Bitcoin plunged nearly 30% during the turmoil, touching levels last seen during the rollout of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024.

Twelve months later, market dynamics have shifted decisively. Bitcoin has rebounded sharply, outperforming traditional assets. The S&P 500 has climbed 24%, and gold has gained 40% over the same period — a reflection of investor demand across both risk and defensive exposures.

The U.S. dollar, meanwhile, has weakened. The Dollar Index (DXY) has slipped from 103 to below 100, even as bond yields rose. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has increased from 3.7% to 4.2%, and the 30-year yield has jumped from 4.0% to 4.8%. Globally, bond markets have followed suit: the U.K.’s 30-year yield now sits at 5.3%, up from 4.3%, while Japan’s long-end has surged from 1.9% to above 3% — a significant move in a historically low-rate environment.

Despite last year’s volatility, long-term Bitcoin holders have remained undeterred — and are growing in strength.

According to Glassnode’s HODL Waves, which map Bitcoin supply by holding duration, long-dated positions have expanded meaningfully. Coins held for 7 to 10 years now make up over 8% of total supply, up from 4% a year earlier. The share held for 6 to 12 months has also increased, rising from 8% to 15%, indicating that buyers during the recovery phase are holding firm.

At the same time, the proportion of coins held for less than three months has grown compared to 2024 — suggesting a wave of new entrants, some of whom may be chasing upside momentum at elevated levels.

Still, the overall trend points to renewed conviction. As macro conditions evolve and institutional flows deepen, Bitcoin’s long-term holder base appears to be reinforcing its position, quietly building strength behind the scenes.