Trump’s Airstrikes on Iran’s Nuclear Plant Push Polymarket Bets on Hormuz Closure to 52%

Bitcoin (BTC) continues to hover above the critical $100,000 mark, shrugging off rising geopolitical tensions following U.S. airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities.

The attacks have sharply increased the perceived risk that Iran could block the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most vital oil shipping routes.

On Polymarket, betting activity surged, pushing the odds that Iran will close the strait before June 30 to 40%, up from just 14% a day earlier. The probability of a closure by the end of the year jumped even higher, reaching 52%, compared to 33% previously.

Roughly 20 million barrels of oil—equal to about 20% of global oil consumption—pass through the Strait of Hormuz daily, according to the Middle East Forum Observer. Any disruption could cause significant turmoil in energy markets.

Analysts at JPMorgan warned that shutting the strait could drive crude oil prices to $120–$130 per barrel, creating a scenario of stagflation—where inflation rises while economic growth stalls. Such conditions would weigh on both traditional financial markets and digital assets like crypto.

Despite these concerns, the crypto market remained largely calm over the weekend, with Bitcoin staying comfortably above the $100,000 threshold, per CoinDesk data.

The geopolitical situation escalated after former President Donald Trump confirmed Saturday that U.S. forces had launched strikes destroying three significant Iranian nuclear enrichment sites. Trump said the move was meant to force “the bully of the Middle East [Iran] to make peace.”