Traders Anticipate Volatile Moves as $9 Billion in Bitcoin Options Expire This Friday, Post-Thanksgiving.

The expiration of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) options this week is poised to bring heightened volatility to the crypto market. As of Friday, November 29, approximately $9.4 billion in BTC options and $1.3 billion in ETH options will expire on the Deribit exchange, shortly after the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday. This timing sets the stage for potentially sharp market movements as traders adjust their positions.

Looking specifically at Bitcoin, around 45% of the options expiring are in-the-money (ITM), with over $4.2 billion of that amount currently profitable for holders. Most of these are call options, where the strike price is below the current market price, potentially driving increased volatility as traders look to close positions for profit. This mirrors volatility seen in October when a similar expiration caused Bitcoin to drop by 3% after over $4 billion worth of options expired.

Despite the concentration of open interest in the $70,000 strike price for put options, experts like Andre Dragosch from Bitwise suggest that this level is unlikely to be reached, given the strong upward momentum in the market. Instead, he predicts some short-term consolidation, but believes that Bitcoin’s price will likely stay above the $78,000 range, leaving many call options deep in the money.

Furthermore, with a notable imbalance between put and call open interest, traders are hedging against downside risks, which could further support Bitcoin’s price. The large gap between Bitcoin’s current price and the max pain price of $78,000 might push market makers to purchase additional Bitcoin to hedge their positions, fueling a possible rally toward $100,000.