The Bitcoin slump could pave the way for an altcoin rally, as $90K is viewed as a favorable buying level.
High volatility can be advantageous for option buyers, as it increases the probability that the option will end up “in-the-money” (profitable) at some point before expiration, offering buyers the chance to realize gains. With Bitcoin (BTC) expected to remain volatile, traders are predicting a potential shift towards altcoins, especially as a major options expiry influences market activity in the upcoming holiday week.
QCP Capital, a Singapore-based firm, pointed out the significance of the options expiry this Friday, which will see nearly $20 billion worth of BTC and ETH options expire. This represents about half of the open interest on Deribit, a leading crypto derivatives exchange. “If Bitcoin continues to trade in its current range and options sellers keep rolling their shorts forward, we expect further market movement,” QCP Capital stated in a message on Tuesday. “Rolling” refers to the practice where traders extend their positions to later expiration dates, allowing them to keep their trades active while maintaining their market outlook.
For option buyers, periods of high volatility can be beneficial, as it increases the chances of their options becoming profitable before expiration.
QCP also noted that if Bitcoin remains below $100,000, altcoins may see increased attention as they “catch up” in market activity. A similar trend occurred last month when Bitcoin was trading near current levels, and the ether/bitcoin ratio bounced off the 0.032 support level, driving altcoin movements.
The crypto market is known for cycling between Bitcoin leading the charge, followed by altcoins as traders seek to capture additional gains. This often results in rapid rallies in altcoins, fueled by the shifting capital from Bitcoin to other cryptocurrencies.
Bitcoin is currently experiencing one of its toughest Decembers, down 2% over the past 30 days, which has dampened the seasonally bullish outlook for the asset. Hopes for a “Santa rally” — typically a period of strong price increases in the holiday season — have been dampened by profit-taking and a more cautious market sentiment after several weeks of volatility.
Some analysts are warning of further price declines as the U.S. Federal Reserve has signaled fewer rate cuts for next year, while also reaffirming its position against state holdings of Bitcoin and its intention not to change this stance.
Nevertheless, a pullback to the $90,000 mark could present a buying opportunity, according to Alex Kuptsikevich of FxPro. In an email to CoinDesk, Kuptsikevich suggested that while a drastic drop to the $70,000 area remains a possibility, a more likely scenario is a pullback to $90,000 in the coming weeks. He believes this level could entice buyers and halt the ongoing sell-off. Kuptsikevich noted that markets are still processing the Federal Reserve’s more hawkish approach, combined with a desire to lock in profits following a strong year for Bitcoin.
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