Spot ETF Filings for XRP, SOL, DOGE Seen With Strong SEC Approval Chances, According to Bloomberg

Most pending cryptocurrency ETF applications currently before the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) are now considered likely to be approved, with only one notable exception—SUI.

According to Bloomberg analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas, the probability of approval for several spot crypto ETFs—including those tied to XRP, Solana, Litecoin, Cardano, and Dogecoin—now stands at 90% or higher.

“We’re increasing our odds for the majority of spot crypto ETF filings to 90% or greater,” Seyffart posted on X. “SEC engagement continues to be a strong signal of forward progress.”

The analysts pointed to the recent series of 19b-4 acknowledgements and S-1 amendment requests as evidence the SEC is increasingly open to working with ETF issuers, signaling a constructive regulatory stance.

The outlier remains the SUI ETF, filed solely by Canary, which Bloomberg gives only a 60% chance of approval. The analysts cited the absence of a regulated futures market for SUI and broader regulatory uncertainties as key reasons for the lower odds.

Sentiment on prediction platform Polymarket reflects similar optimism. Bettors are pricing in a 98% chance of XRP ETF approval by year-end, with a 91% likelihood for a Solana (SOL) ETF and a 71% chance for a Dogecoin (DOGE) product.