Speculators on Polymarket Bet Big on Canada Tariff Relief Amid Lutnick’s Remarks

Lutnick Hints at Tariff Talks, Polymarket Traders Bet on May Resolution

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick signaled that President Donald Trump may be open to revising tariffs on Canada, though a full rollback isn’t on the table just yet.

Following his remarks on Fox Business, traders on Polymarket quickly adjusted their bets, now placing a 70% chance that the U.S.-Canada trade dispute will be settled by May.

The 25% tariffs, imposed Tuesday morning on Canadian and Mexican imports, were justified by the Trump administration as a necessary measure against fentanyl trafficking and illegal immigration. But by the afternoon, Lutnick’s comments suggested a potential shift in policy, pushing Polymarket odds of a resolution up by 20% in just a few hours.

“I think [Trump is] going to work something out with them,” Lutnick told Fox Business. “It’s not going to be a pause, none of that pause stuff, but I think he’s going to figure out: you do more, and I’ll meet you in the middle someway, and we’re going to probably announce that tomorrow.”

His remarks also helped lift risk assets, with bitcoin (BTC) gaining 1.5% to trade above $87,000, according to CoinDesk Indices. The CoinDesk 20 (CD20), a benchmark for major digital assets, climbed 2% on the news.