Solana’s CME Futures Debut Underwhelms Compared to BTC and ETH—With an Important Twist

Solana’s CME Futures Launch Falls Short of BTC and ETH, But Market Context Tells a Different Story

Solana (SOL) futures quietly debuted on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) on Monday, marking a key step toward institutional adoption. However, unlike the high-profile launches of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) futures, SOL’s arrival was met with little excitement.

The new product recorded $12.3 million in notional trading volume on its first day, closing with $7.8 million in open interest. In comparison, BTC futures debuted in December 2017 with $102.7 million in volume and $20.9 million in open interest, while ETH futures saw $31 million in volume and $20 million in open interest when they launched in February 2021, according to K33 Research.

SOL’s underwhelming start coincided with broader market weakness. The token dropped nearly 10% from its weekend peak, underperforming BTC’s 4.5% and ETH’s 3.8% declines. A downturn in speculative memecoin trading, broader risk-off sentiment, and even the fallout from a poorly received Solana commercial contributed to the dip.

However, K33 analysts Vetle Lunde and David Zimmerman argue that when adjusted for market capitalization, SOL’s futures launch is more in line with BTC and ETH’s first-day numbers. At launch, Solana’s market cap was approximately $65 billion—significantly lower than ETH’s $200 billion and BTC’s $318 billion at the time of their CME futures debuts.

Timing also played a role. Bitcoin’s CME futures launched at the peak of the 2017 bull run, while Ethereum’s came during the early stages of the 2021 altcoin boom and Tesla’s Bitcoin purchase announcement, both of which fueled institutional demand. By contrast, SOL futures debuted in a risk-averse market with no major catalysts to generate immediate excitement.

“While institutional demand for altcoins may appear weak, it’s important to consider the broader market environment surrounding SOL’s launch,” K33 analysts concluded.