September CPI Shows Softer-than-Expected 0.3% Rise; Bitcoin Continues Uptrend

U.S. September CPI Comes In Softer Than Expected; Bitcoin and Stocks Rally

The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September rose less than forecast, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates in its final two meetings of the year.

Despite the government shutdown limiting broader economic releases, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a 0.3% month-over-month increase in headline CPI, below the 0.4% estimate and August’s 0.4% rise. Year-over-year, CPI climbed 3.0%, slightly under the projected 3.1% and above August’s 2.9%.

Core CPI, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.2% month-over-month, versus the 0.3% forecast and August’s 0.3%. On an annual basis, core CPI was 3.0%, under the expected 3.1%.

Bitcoin (BTC $111,580.60) extended gains immediately following the release, trading near $111,600.

Equities also responded positively: Nasdaq 100 futures rose nearly 1%, the 10-year Treasury yield dipped two basis points to 3.97%, and the U.S. dollar weakened slightly.

Ahead of the data, markets had already priced in a near-certain 25-basis-point rate cut at the Fed’s upcoming meeting, and about a 90% probability of an additional 25-basis-point cut at the final policy meeting of 2025, according to CME FedWatch.