Robinhood’s Crypto Revenue Set to Decline in Q1 Following Late 2024 Peak: JPMorgan

JPMorgan Sees Robinhood Crypto Revenues Cooling in Q1 After Blowout End to 2024

Robinhood’s blockbuster crypto trading performance in late 2024 is unlikely to carry over into the new year, with analysts at JPMorgan forecasting a notable slowdown in the first quarter of 2025.

After a stunning 700% jump in Q4 cryptocurrency trading revenue helped propel Robinhood’s overall transaction-based income, the trading platform is now expected to report a more subdued Q1 when it announces earnings after the market closes on Wednesday.

JPMorgan analyst Kenneth Worthington said a sharp decline in digital asset volumes—particularly in the latter part of the quarter—signals a reversal in momentum. He estimates that users transacted around $52 billion in crypto during Q1, a steep drop from $71 billion in the prior quarter.

The pullback reflects broader market weakness and a shift toward risk aversion, which has weighed on both equities and crypto markets. Robinhood’s assets under custody are also expected to retreat 5% quarter-over-quarter to $183.3 billion, though still significantly higher than a year ago.

While there was a brief spike in retail activity in April tied to geopolitical headlines, Worthington doubts it will meaningfully change the quarter’s overall trend. He also noted a decline in demand for leveraged trading products — a dynamic seen across the brokerage space — as another headwind.

Worthington reiterated his neutral rating on Robinhood and adjusted his price target down to $44 from $45, implying around 10% downside from the current share price of just under $49.