Polymarket Bettors Question Likelihood of Microsoft Acquiring Bitcoin

Polymarket Bettors Predict Microsoft Shareholders Will Reject Michael Saylor’s Bitcoin Proposal

Polymarket bettors are predicting that Michael Saylor’s proposal to Microsoft’s board to add bitcoin to its balance sheet will be rejected by shareholders. According to Polymarket’s betting odds, there is only an 11% chance the proposal will be approved.

Each Polymarket bet is divided into a “Yes” and “No” side, with a payout of $1 in USDC (a stablecoin pegged to the U.S. dollar) for the side that correctly predicts the outcome, and zero for the side that does not.

In October, the National Center for Public Policy Research suggested that Microsoft consider adding bitcoin to its balance sheet as a diversification strategy. However, Microsoft’s board recommended that shareholders vote against the idea, citing concerns about the volatility of cryptocurrency and its unsuitability for a company of Microsoft’s size.

Michael Saylor, the executive chairman of MicroStrategy (MSTR), which has seen its stock rise by 455% this year, recently pitched the idea to Microsoft’s board. Saylor argued that bitcoin could serve as a hedge against inflation and economic instability, potentially boosting Microsoft’s $3.2 trillion market cap to more than $8 trillion.

Saylor criticized Microsoft’s current treasury strategy, stating that the company has “surrendered” $200 billion over five years through dividends and buybacks, money that could have been invested in bitcoin, which has increased by over 1,200% in the same period.

Some Polymarket bettors have expressed skepticism about the proposal, arguing that there are already many ways for institutional investors to gain bitcoin exposure without adding it directly to Microsoft’s balance sheet. One bettor, who placed a $2,000 bet on the “No” side, argued that adding bitcoin to Microsoft’s balance sheet would complicate its value assessment by mixing stable investments with volatile ones.

“They’re just making their value assessment more difficult by muddying up safe investments (MFST) with volatile ones (BTC),” the bettor, who goes by the name Oxymirin, said.

On the other hand, a bettor on the “Yes” side, known as titanlin, suggested that given Microsoft’s strong cash position, the company might allocate a small portion of its funds to bitcoin.

“I think a small amount of funds will be allocated for testing. After all, shareholders’ rights must be taken into consideration. Microsoft’s cash position is sufficient. Microsoft offers some options for buying Bitcoin,” titanlin wrote.

Microsoft’s next shareholder meeting is scheduled for December 10, when the proposal will be put to a vote.