Glassnode’s newest weekly report points to a growing resemblance between today’s bitcoin market and the early phase of the 2022 crypto winter, as more supply moves into loss and investor appetite weakens across both spot and derivatives markets.
A central warning sign is the mounting risk of capitulation among recent buyers. Glassnode’s supply quantiles cost-basis metric shows bitcoin has remained below the 0.75 quantile since mid-November, trading near $96,100. This places over 25% of the circulating supply at an unrealized loss—an alignment that similarly appeared at the onset of the 2022 downturn.
Loss-making supply continues to rise. On a seven-day simple moving average, the total supply in loss has climbed to 7.1 million BTC, revisiting the high end of the 5–7 million range that characterized early-2022 stress.
Despite this, bitcoin is still seeing net inflows on a realized basis. The realized cap net position change sits around $8.69 billion per month, though this remains far below the roughly $64.3 billion monthly peak recorded during the summer.
Off-chain indicators reveal further cooling demand. ETF flows have turned deeply negative, with BlackRock’s IBIT posting its sixth consecutive week of outflows—the fund’s longest redemptions streak since its January 2024 launch. Over the past five weeks, outflows have exceeded $2.7 billion.
Spot trading metrics also show deterioration. Glassnode notes that cumulative volume delta has reversed, led by consistently negative readings on Binance. Meanwhile, the Coinbase premium—after briefly recovering—appears likely to slip back into discount territory.
The derivatives market echoes this cautious tone. Open interest has been declining from November into December, suggesting reduced willingness to take on leverage following the Oct. 10 liquidation-driven flash crash. Perpetual funding rates are mostly neutral with occasional negative prints, and a cooling funding premium points to a less speculative positioning environment.
Options activity heading into next week’s FOMC meeting also reflects defensive sentiment. Rather than positioning for a significant breakout, traders have been selling upside. Earlier in the week, put purchases were dominant as bitcoin approached $80,000. As price stabilized, call activity picked up, indicating eased nerves but not a strong shift back toward bullish conviction.
Share this content:
