Massive $2B Bitcoin Purchase by Trump Media Challenges Traditional 2025 Cycle Wisdom

Trump Media & Technology Group’s newly announced $2 billion Bitcoin purchase may be more than just a corporate investment—it could be a signal of shifting macroeconomic winds.

In traditional markets, the adage “Don’t fight the Fed” has long warned investors against positioning themselves against central bank policy. But for crypto traders, a new mantra may be emerging: “Don’t fight the President.”

On Monday, Trump Media, the social media firm founded by President Donald Trump, revealed it had invested $2 billion into Bitcoin ($BTC), with plans to further expand its holdings. The move raises fresh questions about the longevity of the current bull market, potentially upending the long-standing belief that Bitcoin peaks roughly a year after each halving event.

Halving History Meets a New Market Reality

Bitcoin’s price cycle has traditionally followed a four-year rhythm, punctuated by halving events that reduce miner rewards by 50%. The most recent halving, completed in April 2024, cut rewards to 3.125 BTC per block. Since then, Bitcoin has rallied from around $65,000 to nearly $120,000.

Historically, these post-halving rallies culminate 12 to 18 months after the event, before giving way to bear markets. Previous cycle peaks were recorded in December 2013, December 2017, and November 2021. If history repeats, Bitcoin’s current bull run could run out of steam before year-end.

But this time, the presence of a pro-crypto U.S. President—and his associated companies making direct market moves—may disrupt that familiar pattern.

A President-Driven Paradigm Shift?

Unlike in previous cycles, the bullish forces now extend beyond organic market behavior. Trump Media’s multibillion-dollar allocation adds direct upward pressure on BTC, while the Trump administration is simultaneously fostering favorable crypto regulation, including the recent GENIUS Stablecoin Act.

Commenting on X, pseudonymous macro strategist EndGame Macro noted: “No one spends $2 billion on an ultra-volatile asset unless they’re betting on a shift in the entire liquidity regime.”

Trump’s repeated criticism of Fed Chair Jerome Powell and elevated interest rates also adds a political dimension to this move. With the federal funds rate still hovering at 4.25%, the investment could be interpreted as a bet on rate cuts, a weaker U.S. dollar, or both.

“If they didn’t believe the Fed was going to pivot, either by force or design, then this would be reckless,” EndGame Macro added. “Because if the Fed holds rates higher for longer and Bitcoin sees a 40–60% correction, Trump Media risks significant mark-to-market losses—or worse.”

A Liquidity Wave Incoming?

Goldman Sachs appears to support the view of a coming pivot. According to a note cited by InvestingLive, Goldman strategists expect three 25-basis-point rate cuts beginning as early as the Fed’s September meeting—provided inflation remains contained.

Such a move could usher in a new wave of liquidity, softening financial conditions and fueling continued appetite for risk assets, including crypto.

Trump Media’s $2 billion Bitcoin bet, therefore, is not just a headline—it’s a high-stakes wager on a friendlier macro environment, looser monetary policy, and a potentially transformative shift in the U.S. government’s stance on digital assets.