Market’s Highest-Volume Polymarket Trader Anticipates 50bps Fed Cut

Polymarket’s Leading Trader Bets on 50bps Fed Cut Ahead of Key Inflation Data
September 10, 2025

On decentralized prediction platform Polymarket, top trader JustWakingUp is wagering that the Federal Reserve will slash interest rates by 50 basis points (bps) next week, exceeding the market’s consensus of a 25 bps cut.

JustWakingUp, Polymarket’s most active trader with nearly $400 million in total volume and over $2 million in profits, has placed $15,000 on the Fed lowering rates to 3.75%. The bet is already up 3%, with potential winnings of around $226,000 if the larger cut materializes.

While the CME FedWatch Tool assigns a 91% probability to a standard 25 bps reduction, the odds of a 50 bps cut have climbed to nearly 10% after Friday’s jobs report revealed 911,000 fewer positions added over the year ending March 2025—the largest annual downward revision on record.

Major institutions including BlackRock and Standard Chartered have also advocated for a 50 bps cut. Traders are now eyeing the Producer Price Index on Wednesday and Consumer Price Index on Thursday, with weaker-than-expected readings potentially boosting expectations for more aggressive easing, benefiting bitcoin and equities alike.