Market May Have Priced in Bitcoin’s Seasonal September Low

Bitcoin May Have Found Its September Low Ahead of Q4 Rally – 12/9/2025

Historical monthly trends suggest Bitcoin (BTC) $115,912.40 likely hit its September 2025 low around $107,000 on the first day of the month.

Since July 2024, Bitcoin has consistently formed monthly lows within the first ten days. February, June, and August 2025 were exceptions, with lows arriving later, though early-month corrections still occurred before broader trends resumed.

Market observers speculate that these early-month lows may be linked to institutional portfolio rebalancing or clusters of macroeconomic events at the month’s start.

Oliver Knight, deputy managing editor for data and tokens at CoinDesk, explains: “Futures and options often expire at month-end or the start of the next month, triggering short-term volatility followed by quieter trading as positions are rolled over or adjusted.”

While past performance doesn’t guarantee future results, Q4 has historically been Bitcoin’s strongest quarter, averaging an 85% return. October has been particularly favorable, with only two losing months since 2013.