Bitcoin (BTC) enters September under familiar seasonal headwinds, with historical data showing losses in nine of the last 14 Septembers, averaging about 12%.
The cryptocurrency opened the week near $110,000, its lowest level in nearly two months, while total crypto market capitalization slid to $3.74 trillion, a three-week low. Over the past 24 hours, Solana (SOL) led gains with a 4% rise, while XRP added 1% and Cardano (ADA) gained 1.5%.
Traders warn that macro uncertainty, fragile sentiment, and thinning volumes leave little room for error. Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro, noted that BTC’s failure to hold $112,000 could result in further declines toward $105,000, a key support level ahead of the psychological $100,000 barrier.
The crypto fear index fell to 40, its lowest since April, signaling rising caution. Historical patterns reinforce the risk: September drawdowns in 2017, 2019, 2021, and 2022 often coincided with liquidity squeezes and macro jitters.
ETF flows highlight additional pressure. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $440 million in net outflows last week, while Ether ETFs saw $1 billion in inflows, indicating rotation rather than net capital growth. Spot ETFs now hold over 1.3 million BTC, roughly 6% of total supply.
Investors are eyeing Friday’s U.S. non-farm payrolls report, expected at 45,000 jobs. A soft reading could boost expectations for a Fed rate cut, potentially reviving risk-on sentiment. Meanwhile, options data show strong demand for puts, reflecting a cautious market.
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