Market Analysts Warn of 12% Bitcoin Decline as Solana Leads Major Crypto Gains

Bitcoin (BTC) enters September under familiar seasonal headwinds, with historical data showing losses in nine of the last 14 Septembers, averaging about 12%.

The cryptocurrency opened the week near $110,000, its lowest level in nearly two months, while total crypto market capitalization slid to $3.74 trillion, a three-week low. Over the past 24 hours, Solana (SOL) led gains with a 4% rise, while XRP added 1% and Cardano (ADA) gained 1.5%.

Traders warn that macro uncertainty, fragile sentiment, and thinning volumes leave little room for error. Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro, noted that BTC’s failure to hold $112,000 could result in further declines toward $105,000, a key support level ahead of the psychological $100,000 barrier.

The crypto fear index fell to 40, its lowest since April, signaling rising caution. Historical patterns reinforce the risk: September drawdowns in 2017, 2019, 2021, and 2022 often coincided with liquidity squeezes and macro jitters.

ETF flows highlight additional pressure. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $440 million in net outflows last week, while Ether ETFs saw $1 billion in inflows, indicating rotation rather than net capital growth. Spot ETFs now hold over 1.3 million BTC, roughly 6% of total supply.

Investors are eyeing Friday’s U.S. non-farm payrolls report, expected at 45,000 jobs. A soft reading could boost expectations for a Fed rate cut, potentially reviving risk-on sentiment. Meanwhile, options data show strong demand for puts, reflecting a cautious market.