Mark Carney Gains Ground on Polymarket as Bitcoin-Friendly Poilievre Faces Tight Race

Carney Closes in on Poilievre as Canadian Election Tightens on Polymarket

Newly appointed Canadian Prime Minister and Liberal Party leader Mark Carney has seen his odds of winning the next federal election surge, according to Polymarket traders.

Carney now holds a 49% probability of securing victory, a sharp rise from 26% last month. Meanwhile, Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre’s chances have dropped to 51%, down from 72% in February.

Canada’s next scheduled election is set for October 20, 2025. However, a confidence vote when Parliament resumes on March 24 could force an early election if opposition parties unite against the minority Liberal government. The confidence vote follows the prorogation of Parliament requested by outgoing Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, who announced his resignation plans pending the selection of a new Liberal leader.

The shift in betting markets mirrors recent polling trends. While the Conservatives previously held a 16-point lead over the Liberals in polling averages, new data from Nanos Research shows the gap has nearly closed, with just a one-point difference.

Analysts suggest the shift is driven by growing trade tensions with the U.S., as voters lean toward Carney’s economic expertise and central banking experience over Poilievre’s populist messaging.

Crypto’s Role in the Election Campaign

Despite Poilievre’s history of supporting Bitcoin and blockchain adoption—he personally holds a Canadian Bitcoin ETF—crypto has not been a central issue in the election discourse.

Carney, known for his cautious stance on digital assets during his time as Bank of England governor, has yet to take a public position on the matter in his role as Liberal leader.

As the campaign unfolds, economic concerns and trade policy are shaping up to be the key battlegrounds, while crypto remains a secondary issue—at least for now.