Largest Whale Distribution in Years Puts Bitcoin, Ether, and XRP to the Test This September

Bitcoin, Ether, XRP Face September Test Amid Record Whale Activity

Bitcoin (BTC) hovered just below $112,000 on Monday as traders assessed the impact of the largest whale sell-off in over two years alongside signals of long-term accumulation and steady altcoin performance.

On-chain data from CryptoQuant shows that more than 100,000 BTC—roughly $12.7 billion—have exited major wallets in the past 30 days. Analyst caueconomy described it as “the largest coin distribution this year,” noting whale reserves fell by 114,920 BTC, briefly pushing Bitcoin below $108,000. The move mirrors aggressive trimming seen in July 2022.

“The portfolios of major players are still shrinking, which may continue to pressure Bitcoin in the coming weeks,” the analyst said. Weaker ETF inflows and thinner trading volumes have left the market more sensitive to macroeconomic drivers.

Despite short-term pressure, long-term indicators remain constructive. Bitcoin is down only 13% from its mid-August all-time high, a shallower pullback compared with historical corrections. CryptoQuant analyst Dave the Wave noted that the one-year moving average has climbed from $52,000 a year ago to $94,000, and is projected to exceed $100,000 in October, suggesting a structural uptrend.

Supply metrics also support a positive outlook. Ryan Lee, chief analyst at Bitget, said Bitcoin’s illiquid supply has reached a record 14.3 million BTC, with more than 70% held in wallets showing minimal spending history. “Confidence in long-term value remains evident,” he added. Lee expects BTC to stabilize and gain momentum in a $105,000–$118,000 range, bolstered by ETF flows and bullish MACD signals.

Ethereum (ETH) traded near $4,307, with a projected range of $4,100–$4,600 if ETF demand persists. Upcoming network upgrades and DeFi catalysts could also support further gains.

Altcoins showed moderate strength: XRP rose 2.3% to $2.96, Solana (SOL) gained 3.2% to $214, Dogecoin extended a 10.5% weekly gain to $0.236, and Cardano (ADA) added 6% to $0.865.

Market sentiment remains cautious. FxPro analyst Alex Kuptsikevich noted that total crypto market capitalization rose 2.5% last week to $3.85 trillion but remains below its 50-day average. “This reflects limited risk appetite,” he said, pointing out that the sentiment index dipped into fear at 44 over the weekend before rebounding to 51 on Monday.

Seasonal September weakness adds another layer of caution. Jeff Mei, COO at BTSE, emphasized that upcoming U.S. inflation data could steer the market. “Higher-than-expected numbers may pressure Bitcoin and Ethereum, while lower readings could spark a rally,” he said.