K33 analysts believe Bitcoin’s long-standing 4-year cycles are likely ending as the cryptocurrency evolves.

K33: Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle Narrative Fades as Macro Forces Take the Lead

Bitcoin’s iconic four-year price cycle—once seen as gospel among crypto traders—may be losing its grip, according to new research from K33.

Historically, the asset’s trajectory has closely followed a pattern tied to halving events, with each cycle culminating in explosive rallies roughly a year after mining rewards were reduced. That trend defined bull runs in 2013, 2017, and 2021, with cycle peaks often arriving around 1,060 days after the previous bottom.

But the latest findings from K33 suggest the maturing Bitcoin market is now being shaped less by its internal supply mechanics and more by external, macroeconomic factors.

“As Bitcoin becomes more established, its price action is increasingly dictated by global risk sentiment and monetary policy rather than halving-related supply shocks,” analysts wrote.

They point to a shift toward institutional adoption, rising correlations with traditional assets, and an overall evolution of the asset class. These changes are blurring the clear cyclical patterns that once gave traders a reliable roadmap.

While K33 stops short of declaring the four-year cycle dead, they emphasize it is “no longer a primary market driver” and warn that investors relying solely on it may be overlooking key factors in today’s more complex landscape.

“The days of Bitcoin moving in isolation are over,” the note concludes. “It’s now part of the broader macro conversation.”