June Data Shows U.S. CPI Up 0.3% as Anticipated; Core Rate Softer Than Expected at 0.2%

Bitcoin Edges Up as U.S. Inflation Data Signals Possible Fed Rate Cut

Bitcoin saw a slight rebound to $117,300 after sliding from record highs above $124,000 just over a day earlier, buoyed by U.S. inflation data that matched expectations and reinforced hopes for a Federal Reserve rate cut later this year.

In June, the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.3%, in line with forecasts and up from 0.1% in May. On a year-over-year basis, CPI rose 2.7%, also matching expectations and higher than May’s 2.4%.

Core CPI, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.2% in June, slightly below the expected 0.3%, and up from 0.1% the previous month. Annually, core CPI climbed 2.9%, just below the anticipated 3.0%, and slightly higher than May’s 2.8%.

Traditional markets reacted positively to the inflation figures. Futures tied to the S&P 500 rose 0.4%, while the yield on the 10-year Treasury slipped two basis points to 4.41%.

Investors continue to monitor inflation for clues on when the Fed might begin easing monetary policy. Although a few policymakers have floated the possibility of a rate cut as soon as the Fed’s late July meeting, broader consensus—including Fed Chair Jerome Powell—leans toward waiting.

This makes the Fed’s September meeting the most likely opportunity for a potential rate reduction. Before the release of today’s inflation data, the CME FedWatch Tool pegged the odds of a September cut at just under 62%.