JPMorgan Forecasts Stablecoin Market Size at $500B in 2028, Below Aggressive Predictions.

JPMorgan Predicts Stablecoin Market Will Hit $500B by 2028, Tempering High Hopes

JPMorgan expects the stablecoin market to reach around $500 billion by 2028, significantly lower than some of the more optimistic forecasts projecting growth to $1 trillion or even $2 trillion.

In a report led by strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, the bank noted that most stablecoin activity remains concentrated within crypto-focused areas rather than mainstream payment use.

“We see the projections that stablecoins could jump from $250 billion today to $1–2 trillion in the next few years as unrealistic,” the analysts commented.

Stablecoins—digital currencies pegged to assets like the U.S. dollar—are crucial in crypto markets for trading, DeFi activities, and serving as reserves for crypto platforms. According to JPMorgan’s research, about 88% of stablecoin demand comes from crypto-native applications, while just 6% is linked to payment transactions.

Even with potential advances in regulation and adoption, JPMorgan foresees limited growth in stablecoin use for everyday payments. The bank believes stablecoin expansion will remain mostly tied to the crypto ecosystem rather than spreading widely into the traditional financial system.

JPMorgan also dismissed the idea that substantial capital would shift from bank deposits or money market funds into stablecoins, pointing to a lack of yield incentives and the operational challenges of moving funds between fiat currencies and crypto.

Furthermore, the analysts stressed that stablecoins shouldn’t be directly compared to centralized systems like China’s e-CNY or payment giants Alipay and WeChat Pay, which operate under very different regulatory and technological frameworks.

However, JPMorgan’s cautious outlook contrasts with that of other major financial institutions. For instance, Standard Chartered remains optimistic, suggesting the stablecoin market could grow nearly tenfold if the U.S. implements supportive legislation such as the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins (GENIUS) Act.

Standard Chartered believes that favorable regulation could significantly expand stablecoin usage, potentially driving the market from its current size of about $230 billion to as much as $2 trillion by the end of 2028.