Markets Slash December Fed Rate-Cut Odds as Jobs Data Delay Adds Uncertainty
Expectations for a December Federal Reserve rate cut have tumbled after the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced it will not release October jobs data, with November’s report delayed until after the Fed’s final 2025 policy meeting.
Traders on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange now assign only a 33% probability to a year-end cut, down sharply from 50% just one day earlier. Less than a month ago, markets had priced in nearly a 100% chance. The decline follows Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s late-October remarks, which dampened hopes for additional easing, and subsequent speeches that highlighted internal divisions over monetary policy.
The shift has weighed heavily on crypto markets. Bitcoin has fallen from $110,000 before Powell’s comments to around $89,000, while crypto-related equities have posted steep declines. Stablecoin issuer Circle (CRCL) dropped 10% Wednesday and nearly 50% over the past month, and Bitcoin treasury company Strategy (MSTR) fell roughly 10% today and nearly 40% since late October.
Without current labor data, the Fed heads into December with limited guidance. Historically, policymakers have relied on fresh employment and inflation reports to shape decisions. In the absence of a clear slowdown in the labor market, hawkish members are unlikely to shift toward supporting an additional cut this year.
Former President Donald Trump also added to the noise, stating at an investment forum that he would have fired Powell if not for Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s counsel to let him serve until 2026.
The only available report before the December meeting is September’s nonfarm payrolls, set for release Thursday. Its outdated data is expected to have minimal impact on the Fed’s decision, leaving markets navigating uncertainty as the year draws to a close.
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