Japan’s Yield Curve Gains Influence Over Bitcoin and Bond Movements

Bitcoin’s Movements Now Mirror Japan’s 30-Year Bonds, Not Wall Street

In an unexpected twist in global macro trends, Bitcoin appears increasingly influenced by Japan’s long-term bond market rather than its usual correlation with U.S. tech stocks.

Weston Nakamura, founder of Across The Spread and a noted macro analyst focusing on Asian markets, points to a growing connection between Bitcoin (BTC) and Japan’s 30-year government bond (JGB) yields. This marks a significant shift from BTC’s long-standing relationship with U.S. equity indices like the Nasdaq 100.

“In 2024, we’ve seen Bitcoin react more consistently to changes in Japanese bond yields than to major U.S. market catalysts,” said Nakamura. “The idea that JGBs are now helping set the tone for crypto may sound wild, but the data backs it up.”

This trend became especially visible during flashpoints like Trump’s re-election and the approval of U.S.-listed Bitcoin ETFs — both of which initially sparked price surges for BTC before it settled back into patterns that align with the trajectory of JGB yields.

Nakamura argues that this isn’t just a ripple effect from U.S. Treasuries. He cites recent comments from U.S. Treasury official Scott Bessent, who blamed rising yields not on Washington’s political dysfunction, but on broader global forces — specifically Japan.

If Bessent is correct, then Japan’s bond market may now be a hidden driver of U.S. interest rate policy. And if the Fed is reacting to that, Bitcoin — and by extension, broader crypto markets — may be indirectly responding to the Bank of Japan.

“Whether you’re trading gold, tech stocks, or tokens, you need to be watching the Japanese bond market,” Nakamura said. “It’s emerging as a global anchor — not just for yields, but for sentiment across asset classes.”