Bitcoin Heads into Thanksgiving Amid Continued Downtrend
Bitcoin BTC enters Thanksgiving following a 35% drop from its October all-time high, marking its fifth consecutive weekly decline. Historically, the day before Thanksgiving tends to be weak, with six of the last seven sessions finishing lower. In 2020 and 2021, BTC fell roughly 8%, likely due to reduced liquidity and limited hedging ahead of the holiday.
Thanksgiving itself is generally flat. Since 2013, Bitcoin has averaged 1.5% gains on the holiday, with only four negative sessions. The day after typically performs better, averaging over 2.3% gains. On a weekly basis, Thanksgiving usually falls in week 47, historically returning around 3%, though late-week 46 has been stronger, averaging over 6%.
Despite Q4 historically being Bitcoin’s strongest quarter, Q4 2025 is down 23%, with November alone falling over 20%, the worst monthly performance since June 2022. BTC remains in a seven-week drawdown from its $126,000 October high, and upcoming options expiries may add short-term volatility.
Bitcoin is on track to finish below the 2024 Thanksgiving level of $95,380, a scenario seen in 2015, 2018, and 2022. Institutional investors via spot ETFs and corporate treasuries now dominate the market, leaving retail traders more exposed. October saw $19 billion in liquidations on retail-favored venues, highlighting risks in a market with thinner liquidity and greater institutional influence.
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