In Bullish Case, ARK Invest Sees Bitcoin Hitting Up to $2.4M by 2030.

Bitcoin holders are tightening their grip as exchange balances plunge to levels not seen since 2019, even as BTC consolidates near $94,000.

In a major vote of confidence for the leading cryptocurrency, ARK Invest has sharply raised its 2030 Bitcoin price target, projecting it could soar as high as $2.4 million per coin. The revised figure reflects updated assumptions around Bitcoin’s active circulating supply — excluding coins considered lost or held for the long term.

Currently, Bitcoin is trading around $94,000.

The bullish $2.4 million forecast marks a 60% increase from ARK’s previous projection in January 2024, representing an impressive 72% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) through 2030. In a more moderate scenario, ARK expects Bitcoin to reach $1.2 million (53% CAGR), while the bearish outlook puts Bitcoin at $500,000 (32% CAGR).

David Puell, an analyst at the Cathie Wood-led investment firm, based the updated targets on Bitcoin’s expanding potential market. His model factors in growth areas such as institutional adoption, Bitcoin’s role as “digital gold,” emerging market demand for financial safe havens, government and corporate treasury allocations, and a developing suite of on-chain financial services.

Back in November 2024, Puell had forecast a year-end Bitcoin range of $104,000 to $124,000. Bitcoin ultimately finished 2024 at $93,440 before reaching an all-time high of $109,000 in January 2025, then retreating to a low near $74,500 earlier this month.

Bitcoin’s recent recovery has been fueled in part by shrinking exchange balances — a key bullish signal. Data from Glassnode shows the amount of BTC on exchanges has dropped from around 3 million in November 2024 to just 2.6 million today. This suggests a growing preference among investors to self-custody their Bitcoin, reducing sell-side pressure and reinforcing the long-term bullish case.