“In anticipation of Fed week, Bitcoin retreats, and DOGE and ETH suffer the largest losses as traders bet on a 4.25% rate cut.”

Bitcoin Stabilizes Near $114K as Traders Await Fed Decision and Leverage Rises
October 28, 2025

Bitcoin traded steadily around $114,000 on Monday, easing slightly after a weekend surge as traders positioned cautiously ahead of a pivotal Federal Reserve policy meeting expected to bring the year’s second interest rate cut.

The broader crypto market also softened, with Ether (ETH) down 2.6% to $4,115, while Solana (SOL) and Binance Coin (BNB) each lost about 2%. The pullback came after Bitcoin’s strong weekend rebound from $104,800 to nearly $116,000, fueled by optimism surrounding U.S.–China trade progress and improving global sentiment.

“Bitcoin’s rally highlights renewed institutional inflows and long-term conviction,” said Lacie Zhang, research analyst at Bitget Wallet. “Open interest climbing from $25 billion to nearly $30 billion shows new leverage entering the market — a double-edged sword that could strengthen momentum above $112K but heighten liquidation risks below $110K.”

The pattern mirrors earlier episodes this month, when leveraged traders piled in on strength but met resistance between $117,000 and $120,000. This time, though, sentiment appears steadier, contrasting with October’s sharp correction that triggered a record $19 billion in liquidations.

Data from CoinGlass indicates open interest and funding rates remain elevated yet stable, suggesting that while leverage is building, traders have not yet overextended their positions.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets on October 28–29, and markets overwhelmingly expect a 25-basis-point cut to the 4.00%–4.25% range. Analysts see this as the clearest sign yet that the Fed is pivoting toward easing, even as inflation remains slightly above its target.

“Powell will likely stress a cautious, data-dependent stance while signaling controlled liquidity expansion,” Zhang added. “That balance is keeping Treasury demand steady and bolstering sentiment in equities and crypto alike.”

The Fed’s policy shift comes amid an ongoing U.S. government shutdown that has disrupted official economic data releases. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has reportedly told colleagues that the central bank will rely more on private data sources, such as ADP employment figures, until public releases resume — a development closely watched by traders.

Bitcoin’s 5.8% weekly gain contrasts with weakness across most altcoins, a divergence analysts attribute to capital rotation into Bitcoin after recent volatility. Total crypto market capitalization remains near $3.9 trillion, according to FxPro, holding above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages.

“The crypto market has largely shaken off its earlier anxiety,” said Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro. “Bitcoin’s recovery above $116K reinforces support at the 200-day moving average. The $117K–$120K zone remains strong resistance, but a sustained breakout could open the door to new highs.”

On-chain activity shows some long-term holders taking profits. Data from OnChainSchool reveals that coins dormant for more than seven years are being moved at the fastest rate on record, suggesting early investors are booking gains.

Altcoins were mixed during early Asian trading hours. XRP held near $2.65, SOL traded around $202, and DOGE fell 3% to $0.2018, while TRX slipped 1.4% to $0.2989.

As Fed week begins, market sentiment appears to be shifting from fear to cautious optimism. The next major move — whether higher or lower — will likely depend less on the Fed’s decision itself and more on how traders manage the renewed wave of leverage sweeping through the crypto market.