How Fed Policy Could Trigger Price Moves in BTC, ETH, SOL, and XRP

Crypto Market Poised for Moderate Moves Ahead of Fed Rate Decision

Traders in the digital asset space are preparing for potential price swings as the Federal Reserve prepares to announce its latest policy decision later today. While uncertainty remains, implied volatility metrics suggest the market is bracing for a measured, rather than dramatic, reaction.

Volmex’s crypto volatility indices show relatively restrained expectations. For Bitcoin (BTC), the BVIV index pegs one-day annualized implied volatility at 49%, translating to a projected move of about 2.56%, or roughly $2,470 in either direction from its current price near $96,500.

Because crypto markets trade nonstop, the annualized figure is divided by the square root of 365, not 252, which is the standard for equities.

Ether (ETH) implied volatility for the same period is 66%, implying a 3.45% move. Solana (SOL) volatility sits even higher, with an expected daily swing of 4.3%, while XRP options data from Deribit, as tracked by Amberdata, show a 77.98% IV for May 8 — pointing to a potential 4.08% move.

While no change in interest rates is expected at today’s meeting, markets are tuned in to Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s post-decision comments at 18:30 UTC for signs of a shift in tone — particularly regarding inflation pressures and the possibility of cuts later this year.

The crypto sector, still highly sensitive to macroeconomic signals, is watching closely for anything that could tilt sentiment — and prices — in either direction.