Harvard’s Kenneth Rogoff Revisits Bitcoin Prediction, Cites Underestimated Role in Underground Economy
Kenneth Rogoff, Harvard professor and former IMF chief economist, has admitted that he underestimated bitcoin’s resilience, which has been bolstered by its growing use in the global underground economy.
In 2018, Rogoff predicted bitcoin (BTC) was more likely to fall to $100 than rise to $100,000 over the next decade. At that time, bitcoin was trading below $10,000.
Contrary to that forecast, bitcoin surged past $100,000 earlier this year, marking a tenfold increase since Rogoff’s original prediction.
As bitcoin hovered near $113,000 this week, Rogoff acknowledged he had been “far too optimistic” about U.S. regulators imposing strict measures to control cryptocurrency use.
In a recent post on X, Rogoff criticized the regulatory environment for being too permissive, enabling cryptocurrencies like bitcoin to flourish despite concerns related to tax evasion and illicit activities.
He admitted he underestimated bitcoin’s function as an alternative to fiat currencies within the estimated $20 trillion underground economy, a factor that provides a steady floor for its price. This issue is discussed extensively in his latest book, Our Dollar, Your Problem.
Rogoff also pointed to a “blatant conflict of interest,” highlighting that regulators themselves hold substantial cryptocurrency holdings—potentially worth hundreds of millions or more—without apparent repercussions.
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