Glassnode Flags $88,000 as Possible Downside Target for Bitcoin

Glassnode Warns Bitcoin Could Slide Toward $88K as Momentum Weakens

Analysts highlight fading conviction among both short- and long-term holders as BTC struggles to reclaim its key $113K cost basis.

Bitcoin (BTC) is showing renewed weakness as on-chain analytics firm Glassnode cautions that failure to recover the $113,000 short-term holder cost basis could open the door to a deeper correction.

The world’s largest cryptocurrency, currently trading near $107,000, has dropped about 4% over the past 24 hours, extending its recent range-bound behavior between $100,000 and $120,000 — a zone it has occupied for most of 2025.

According to Glassnode’s latest weekly report, the $113,000 level is a crucial threshold that reflects the average entry price of investors who bought BTC in the past five months. Repeated rejections from this zone signal fading bullish strength. If the market continues to fail at this level, Glassnode sees a possible move down to $88,000, the next significant support tied to the realized price of active investors — a metric that often defines deeper corrective phases.

Investor sentiment has softened noticeably. The Short-Term Holder Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (STH-NUPL) has slipped to –0.05, meaning newer investors are selling at a loss. While not yet indicative of full capitulation, the trend reflects growing unease.

At the same time, long-term holders — typically seen as the market’s stabilizing force — have shifted toward selling. Glassnode data shows a net outflow of 104,000 BTC this month, marking the largest wave of long-term holder distribution since July. Analysts suggest that until this cohort resumes accumulation, BTC’s recovery prospects will remain muted.

Meanwhile, market volatility has cooled following October’s steep selloff. Realized volatility has eased to around 43%, and options skew — a gauge of downside hedging demand — has normalized after spiking above 20% during last month’s turmoil.

Glassnode concludes that Bitcoin is likely entering a fragile consolidation phase, with sentiment still fragile and structural demand yet to return. While the panic of October has subsided, sustained recovery will require renewed accumulation and stronger conviction from investors.

At last check, Bitcoin was trading just below $107,000, down roughly 4% on the day.