First Mover Americas: Bitcoin Struggles as Profit-Taking Dominates Market

Crypto Market Update: Nov. 15, 2024

Originally published in First Mover, CoinDesk’s daily newsletter that analyzes the latest shifts in the crypto markets. Subscribe to receive it directly in your inbox every day.

Latest Prices:

• CoinDesk 20 Index: 2,691.86 (+0.76%)
• Bitcoin (BTC): $90,386.53 (-1.21%)
• Ether (ETH): $3,107.30 (-2.48%)
• S&P 500: 5,949.17 (-0.6%)
• Gold: $2,568.54 (+0.01%)
• Nikkei 225: 38,642.91 (+0.28%)

Key Highlights:

Bitcoin (BTC) has struggled to maintain its gains above $90,000 after pushing past $93,000 earlier this week. It dropped about 1% over the last 24 hours, possibly reflecting a wave of profit-taking following its recent all-time high. The downturn was sparked by U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s hawkish remarks, which dampened market expectations for swift rate cuts. Powell commented, “The economy is not sending any signals that we need to be in a hurry to lower rates.” This has led to the market pricing in a 66% chance of a 25-basis-point cut in December, down from 83% just one day earlier. The CoinDesk 20 Index, which tracks a broader selection of cryptocurrencies, rose by 0.66%.

Bitcoin ETFs had a rough day on Thursday, experiencing $400 million in outflows, marking their third-largest loss since launch. Specifically, Fidelity’s FBTC saw outflows of $179.2 million, while Bitwise’s BITB experienced $113.9 million in withdrawals, and Ark’s ARKB suffered $161.7 million in outflows. Grayscale’s two BTC-related products saw a combined $74.9 million in outflows. While the drop in ETF inflows mirrors Bitcoin’s price drop, it may also reflect investors taking profits. On the other hand, BlackRock’s IBIT ETF saw a strong influx of $126.5 million, continuing the trend of positive interest seen since early November. Historically, the two days with larger ETF outflows — May 1 and Nov. 4 — coincided with local price bottoms before Bitcoin rallied.

In contrast, XRP outperformed the broader market with a remarkable 17% increase over 24 hours. This surge comes as the regulatory landscape in the U.S. shifts, benefiting tokens that were previously hindered by the SEC’s policies. XRP’s price surged past 82 cents, marking a 50% increase over the past week and reaching levels not seen since June 2023. This rally follows the news that 18 U.S. states have filed a lawsuit against the SEC, accusing the commission and its chairman, Gary Gensler, of overreaching in their regulation of the crypto industry. Speculation is rising that a pro-crypto stance under a potential Trump administration could benefit U.S.-based companies like Ripple Labs and Uniswap, which could further boost token values.

Chart of the Day:

• BTC’s Technical Setup: Bitcoin recently bounced off the ascending 100-hour simple moving average (SMA), with the hourly MACD histogram signaling renewed bullish momentum.
  • Bullish Scenario: A successful breakout above the trendline resistance could push BTC toward new highs, potentially breaking the $94,000 barrier.
  • Bearish Scenario: A drop below the 100-hour SMA support could signal a move downward, possibly targeting the 200-hour SMA at $82,600.

Source: TradingView