Even Without a Price Rally, Bitcoin ETFs Could Pull In $3 Billion This Quarter, Analyst Says

Bitcoin ETF Inflows Defy Weak Market, Could Triple in Q2

Despite bitcoin’s 13% drop and broader market turmoil, spot bitcoin ETFs pulled in over $1 billion in Q1—and experts believe the second quarter could bring in up to $3 billion more.

Juan Leon, senior investment strategist at Bitwise, said financial advisors and institutions are steadily allocating to BTC, even as retail interest lags. “The current market environment is driving professionals to look past short-term price swings and focus on broader adoption trends,” he said, pointing to policy signals like the Trump administration’s pro-bitcoin stance.

Bitcoin ETFs managed positive flows even as the S&P 500 suffered its worst quarter since 2022. Now, with more advisory platforms going live and potential regulatory momentum building, Q2 could see even stronger demand.

However, not all inflows are from long-term holders. Many institutions engaged in the “basis trade”—buying spot ETFs while shorting bitcoin futures to lock in yield. This trade was highly lucrative in late 2024 but has since lost steam as spreads narrowed to near 5%, which could temper arbitrage-driven inflows going forward.

Still, industry voices like ETF Store President Nate Geraci believe institutional adoption is just beginning. “As comfort levels rise and barriers fall, bitcoin allocations will likely become more common,” he said.

At a recent ETF conference, 57% of advisors said they plan to raise their crypto ETF exposure this year, reflecting bitcoin’s improving image as a legitimate asset class. Larry Fink of BlackRock also noted that institutional adoption remains in early stages.

David Siemer, CEO of Wave Digital Assets, added that macro uncertainty could accelerate the trend: “If recession fears grow or rate cuts loom, bitcoin’s role as digital gold becomes more attractive—and that could keep ETF inflows strong even in a shaky market.”