Ethereum’s ETH Dead? New Metrics Paint a Different Picture.

Despite the widespread sentiment on platforms like Crypto Twitter that Ethereum’s ether (ETH) is struggling or even “dead,” market data is signaling a strong potential for recovery. Traders are increasingly betting on the future rise of ETH, as evidenced by a spike in derivative activity and a marked increase in Ethereum’s blob usage.

According to data from CoinGlass, cumulative open interest in both perpetual and standard futures contracts has surged to a record 6.32 million ETH, which is worth over $27 billion. This represents a 17% increase month-to-date. As open interest rises alongside price movements, this typically signals a positive uptrend. Indeed, Ethereum’s price has risen by 35% this month to reach $3,400, aligning with Bitcoin’s strong performance.

Further, data from Velo reveals that the gap between three-month ETH futures and spot prices, known as the premium, has expanded to an annualized 16% on major offshore exchanges such as Binance, OKX, and Deribit. On the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), the front-month premium has climbed to 14%. A higher premium often encourages more cash-and-carry trades, where traders capture the price difference between the spot market and futures. This trend could result in increased capital inflows into U.S.-listed ETH ETFs.

Activity in the ether options market is also on the rise. More than 2 million contracts are currently active on Deribit, the most since June, and open interest has reached $7.33 billion, according to Deribit’s metrics.

Ethereum’s price increase has had a significant impact on the total value locked (TVL) on Ethereum-based applications, which now sits at $65 billion—its highest point since May 2022. Much of this value is held by three major applications: Lido, with over $32 billion in ether locked, Aave, with $26 billion in various assets, and EigenLayer, a restaking platform, holding $14 billion.

In addition, Ethereum’s on-chain activity has seen a noticeable uptick. Metrics such as new wallets, transaction volumes, and fees have all spiked compared to the May to September period, signaling greater market activity. While these levels do not yet match the record highs seen earlier in the year when ETH ETFs were a major topic of interest, the growth is still significant.

Ethereum also leads the stablecoin market, hosting $60.3 billion in USDT, surpassing Tron for the first time since June 2022, which has $57.94 billion.

The broader sentiment around Ethereum has also benefited from political developments. The election of Donald Trump has sparked optimism among investors who believe that the new administration may ease regulatory challenges for crypto, which could support DeFi growth and boost demand for ETH. This renewed optimism has helped fuel the growth of ETH and major DeFi tokens since early November.

Overall, while there has been some negative sentiment in the crypto space, the data clearly shows that Ethereum remains a strong player in the market, with significant growth in on-chain activity, futures, options, and TVL. The signs point to continued interest and potential for future gains.